Good morning, it's Tuesday. November 11th, happy veterans day. I'm Phil Streible, Chief Market Church, a step blue line future. So today's top story, the reopening rally, it fades a bit as precious metals continue to hold gains. Gold continues the surges US lawmakers move closer to ending the government shutdown. It's just going to help lift the fog around the Federal Reserve's path on interest rates, ending the shutdown with given Vester's greater clarity on the key official data such as jobs and also inflation and shift the market back to the fiscal deteriorating outlook here of the US economy. Now look at the gold market here yesterday. We saw the largest one-day dollar percentage gain here since Monday, York. October 20th and it's been up for two consecutive sessions. So we've rallied about $131 or about 3.1% over the last two trading sessions that key level to watch that 52-week high is right at that 4336. That was on Monday, October 20th. Now gold volatility, that also surge here with yesterday's big rally here jumping up about 14% at 2336. So remains elevated above that 20 mark. As you see this volatility pick up, remember volatility. It works both ways. So if you're along the gold market, great attack down $131 in two trading sessions. However, that volatility being up there, you could expect the average should range the fluctuate back and forth at that rate or a mark. Now the 14-day average screen giant gold is about $94. So expect to see that heightened volatility continue and with the overnight session compressing only about a $30 range here, we'll see how this trade plays out throughout the rest of the session. Now look at the silver market at 595 that's up 65 cents or up 1.3% so a big move higher here. If you've been working with me closely, we're anticipating that the days over 50 were not done here and if we broke over that 4972 that most likely 50 would be breached here yesterday and we saw that with the largest one day dollar and percentage gain here since Monday, October 13th. It was the fifth highest close in history and we've been up for two consecutive sessions. Taken on about 5% or $2.38 cents here, that 52 week high that key number to watch is about $53.2 cents. So looking at the average range on that, about a dollar 69 on that silver market, you got so cast, x-risen, you got DMI plus over minus and you got the MACD learning. looking to turn positive.

So looking at the equity markets here for the moment, stock futures have slipped. After Monday's gains here, however, traders, they do have multiple reasons to feel optimistic and much more optimistic than last week, because of the fact you have the corporate buybacks, they are providing a tailwind for equities and now that the earnings season is over, we have US companies that are authorized to buy over $1 trillion of buybacks this year through October, and it's been an increase of 15% from last year. So November is typically one of the strongest months for buybacks and it's usually the tailwind that takes us through the rest of the year.

Now one reason why we are fading a little bit overnight. However, starting to recapture the dial just went positive the Russell's only down three. The S&P 500 down 13 and a half, but you do have the NASDAQ down about 4/10 of a percent here, down about 98 points. So in the videos underperforming the mag seven in pre-market trading as soft-mink sold its entire stake in the chip giant.

Now you'll look at the CME's Fed Watch tool, because that's something that has not been moving, but I anticipate that it starts to move here and we get some more of a pinpoint as far as what's gonna happen at this December 9th and 10th meeting. So Markets now see a 63.6% probability, the federal cut rates by 25 basis points. This is down from 68.6 a week earlier. You go to the polymarket because we wanna see that jumped up to 72% yesterday. Now it's back at a 68%. So no actual rise in these expectations based on available data, but once we start to see data come out, this situation is gonna fluctuate quite a bit.

Now you look at the dollar next, just slightly lower, 99.42. It continues to ease a bit. After reaching a five-month high jumping over that 100 mark, but it is consolidating a touch.

And it's unemployment is it rose more than expected to 5% in the last three months September that's a highest since 2021, prompting traders to add bets at the Bank of England and go to cut rates next month.

You look at the 10 year treasury yields, or up one at 4.13%. You look at the November VIX Futures. That is collapsed significantly back below that 20 mark you're sitting at 1858 that's up six and Bitcoin volatility continues to surge here and about $4,500 a day is that fluctuation back and forth.

You'll look at the global markets here, European stocks to gain for a second day. Asian stocks the fluctuate is investors weighed in on the progress from the U.S. setting that government shut down the lingering risks towards those stretched valuations and you got some potential for some re-new trade friction.

We will get some economic data with the NFIB small business optimism. That's something I watch if I trade the Russells. So because of the fact that you want to see optimism continue to gain here as far as what's going to take place with small businesses? If they are optimistic in their growth, in the Fed cutting rates, we should see profitability of small businesses rise and become a tailwind here for the Russell 2000.

And then out of the 457, S&P 500 companies have reported so far, 81% of BTA and LSX bits, only 15% of MIS.

So we get to the ETF flows in the precious metals. This is something I'm watching. little bit of concern on the silver market here and because of the fact that we saw ETFs they cut about 1.15 million. ounces of silver and the holdings in the previous trading session.

So what they're doing is they're lightening up as this market's come up. And they've been rotating in the other asset classes here because money, it has nowhere to go. It either goes in the cash, it goes in the tech, goes in the Bitcoin, goes in the gold. It's got to go somewhere, it ain't gonna sit there. So when it comes out of the gold market, it's going somewhere. So it's the fourth straight day of declines, the key is, is you find out where it's going. and you get involved with that particular party here.

So the gold market, the ETFs, they were flat. They cut about 1,300 trans, it's up about 17% year to date as far as ETF flows. Gold is up about 57% year to date. And if you look at platinum, platinum, palladium futures, the ETF flows huge upswing here. And then they've just been holding steady platinum. They're continuing to liquidate as the market goes up as well.

Something interesting, the gold, silver ratio, not actionable, interesting. 81 to 1 on that gold silver ratio. So we'll see what happens.