Expecting a hawkish cut from the Fed. More important is the dots for next year and any comments on balance sheet/liquidity injection. Even if hawkish, risk assets could still perform.
Do you see the economy deteriorating, especially the labor market, into 2026?
Francine Lacqua
Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo
Expect pockets of weakness. Chair Powell will keep maximum optionality ahead of jobs data. Holistically, expect above-trend growth driven by fiscal stimulus and AI capex spend. Markets: not a linear upward trajectory; expect volatility across equities.
Do you worry about AI valuations? Could we see a fundamental correction?
Francine Lacqua
Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo
Expect continued dispersion among names. Important week for earnings, watching capex plans. Closely watching CDS markets for potential outperformance if GPU capacity announcements bring transparency.
How do you invest across the world? US exceptionalism?
Francine Lacqua
Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo
Don't see a stop to US exceptionalism but have more diversification in portfolios, increasingly towards EM. Very bullish on India given government focus, GDP trajectory, and productivity gains.
Geopolitical tensions haven't really played out in markets. Do you expect more of the same in 2026?
Francine Lacqua
Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo
Most geopolitical announcements have been positive on the margin. Increasingly about what concessions are made, what negotiations are taking place.
Thoughts on China overall? Deflationary but expecting stimulus in 2026.
Francine Lacqua
Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo
Re-upped GDP forecast on export announcements. Pragmatic five-year plan. Bullish but cautious. A lot of capital could be put to work as people have been underweight China, but geopolitics not fully resolved, pockets of volatility expected.
Do you like equities in Europe? Sector or country dependent?
Francine Lacqua
Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo
A little of both. Expecting some stealth performance, nothing aggressive. Less retail buying, more institutional focus. Expect Germany's fiscal plans to continue to put thrust behind European equities, but lacks same momentum/technicals as other markets.
Consumer holding up in Europe and US?
Francine Lacqua
Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo
Expect consumer to be better in US given tax stimulus, a big driver of GDP forecast.
Markets largely overlooked tariff concerns into 2026. Do they continue to look through it?
Francine Lacqua
Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo
Given valuations and late-cycle dynamics, this is exactly the kind of market where you put tail hedges into your portfolio. We like for risk owning the front end of the yield curve.