Why are you still concerned about the labor market when others, including the Fed, seem less concerned?
Vonnie Quinn
Priya Misra
We think the labor market is stable but at a low level; hiring numbers are still weak, and breadth of hiring is limited to education and healthcare.
Was there anything in the report that gave hope? Wage growth came in better than expected.
Vonnie Quinn
Priya Misra
Wage signals are mixed; ECI was weaker than expected. Overall inflation is above target but shelter and ex-shelter service inflation are heading lower.
If there is fragility under the surface, can we really wait until July for the first rate cut?
Vonnie Quinn
Priya Misra
Market is pricing July cuts based on inflation; we don't expect CPI near 2.5% until second half. If labor market stays okay, market accepts second-half cuts.
Could a scenario play out with labor fragility showing gradually, Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, and two rate cuts in second half?
Vonnie Quinn
Priya Misra
Kevin Warsh has one vote; the committee will need to see inflation closer to 2% (or 2.5% broad disinflation) to cut.
What looks interesting across the bond universe?
Vonnie Quinn
Priya Misra
Opportunities in high-quality credit (investment grade, BB/B high yield, securitized credit) given low recession risk.