2026 is going to be explosive. The market move started with gold, and silver's moment has arrived.

This is a government and bank-driven move, not retail. US banks shifted from net short to net long around Thanksgiving. Retail is only now starting to wake up.

Positions are obscured across global trading desks. The shift happened after the COMEX issue. Banks are quiet because they have government orders and are acting as mercantile bankers.

The world is bifurcating. BRICS nations are building a new gold settlement layer. The US is securing resources in Latin America (starting with Venezuela for gold/minerals, not just oil) to counter Chinese influence in Africa and Latin America.

Never bet against the United States. The Trump administration is well aware of the critical nature of these minerals.

The next phase is export controls. China has started with licensing. The US could curb silver exports via tariffs or a ban in 2026, following its critical mineral designation.

The US imports 80% of its silver, mainly refined. It lacks capacity for low-grade concentrate, which goes to China. New US facilities are coming online, but reshoring takes years.

Even with high regional premiums, metal is not leaving certain markets (like China). This is due to geopolitical pressure and the US flushing out Chinese influence from Latin American resources.

The decoupling is a long-term strategy. The seizure of Russian assets made other nations realize their assets could be next, driving the creation of a new system.

During recent volatility, some banks pulled quotes for 5-10 minutes, and premiums spiked. This is the new normal. Credit lines and refinery capacity are tapped.

The 'someone' continuously pulling metal is governments and soon, non-US/non-European digital asset ETFs.

Silver refinery backlogs are 'months out'. If you've tapped your bank credit line, you can't take more metal.

Many miners hedged silver forward at $50, thinking it was high. They are now missing out on prices in the upper $70s. Banks cover shorts through this mechanism.

The 'Fair Sinclair Ratio' (foreign debt / US gold holdings) points to a gold price of ~$35,000 by the end of the decade (~2032). The journey will be 'up and to the right' with big swings.

Practical playbook: Dollar-cost average. Government orders are buying dips non-stop, making them shallow and short-lived.

The current squeeze feels benign and under control because the price is going up, which means the marketplace is working. No major bank failures are imminent.