Introduces the disconnect: Fed fractured and paralyzed, yet silver/platinum/gold are exploding higher, signaling the market now cares more about scarcity than the Fed.
Jeremy Saverne
Josh Fair
Confirms the decoupling, stating 2025 started with gold and now silver is having its moment, predicting 2026 will be 'explosive as well'.
Asks if the current price spike is a short-term volatility spike or an accelerating squeeze.
Jeremy Saverne
Josh Fair
States the primary driver is government-level buying, with US banks shifting from net short to net long, while retail has been selling for two years but is now starting to wake up.
Asks for specifics on which banks and how the positioning change manifests.
Jeremy Saverne
Josh Fair
Explains banks' positions are obscured globally, but the shift happened around Thanksgiving after a COMEX issue. Banks are quiet because they have government orders and are engaged in 'mercantile banking'.
Asks for a ground-level map of the 'metals war' and which side neutral mines' metal flows to.
Jeremy Saverne
Josh Fair
Describes a bifurcating world: BRICS nations are teaming up, building vaults for a new gold settlement layer. The US is making deals in Latin America (e.g., Argentina, Venezuela) to secure minerals critical for infrastructure and future warfare.
Asks if the West is asleep or if the US government is actively buying.
Jeremy Saverne
Josh Fair
Advises never to bet against the US, implying the Trump administration is well aware of the critical need for these minerals.
Questions why retail premiums aren't higher if the shortage is existential.
Jeremy Saverne
Josh Fair
Explains the battle is over raw material for manufacturing, not finished retail products. Predicts export controls, tariffs, or bans are coming in 2026, starting with platinum.
Asks for real-world signals of China throttling supply.
Jeremy Saverne
Josh Fair
Points to regional premiums diverging and metal not leaving China despite high premiums, indicating raw material restrictions.
Asks if wholesale lines froze during recent volatility.
Jeremy Saverne
Josh Fair
Confirms some banks pulled quotes for 5-10 minutes due to extreme volatility and widened spreads, but calls it 'benign' compared to COVID panic. Says this 'new world' of strained credit lines and refinery backlogs is not stopping.
Asks who is continuously pulling metal from markets.
Jeremy Saverne
Josh Fair
Identifies the category as 'government' and hints at upcoming non-US/non-European digital asset ETFs.
Asks about current refinery backlog for industrial orders.
Jeremy Saverne
Josh Fair
States silver backlog is 'months out', worse than gold, due to tapped credit lines and financing issues.
Asks about miners hedging forward at $50 and missing the rally.
Jeremy Saverne
Josh Fair
Confirms miners often sell silver byproduct forward to lock in costs, making them miss the upside, and this is a mechanism banks use to cover shorts.
Asks about his 'Fair Sinclair Ratio' gold price target and timeline.
Jeremy Saverne
Josh Fair
Reiterates the ratio target (~$35k gold) and timeline of 'end of the decade' (~2032), with a journey 'up and to the right' despite volatility.
Asks for a practical 60-90 day playbook for a serious buyer.
Jeremy Saverne
Josh Fair
Recommends dollar-cost averaging, as government buying is continuous, making dips 'very shallow' and 'not lasting very long'.