• David, let's start with the inflation data. Is three, the new two, and is it going to stop this Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates?
    Host
  • David Kelly
    I think the Fed is going to keep on kind of cutting rates is generally a better than expected report. But I think what it really shows is we have a k-shaped economy and it's sort of a k-shaped CPI report. The thing that really jumped out to me is, first of all, our rental cars coming down, there's you know, we've got a big change in demographics here and rents are. Rental inflation is just going away. You also saw used vehicle prices fall. I thought that was pretty, pretty interesting. And then the big thing here is core goods prices outside of food and energy. That's the stuff that should be hit by tariffs. But that's only up 2/10 of a percent of one and a half percent year over year. It is clear that that mainstream retailers don't believe they can pass on the tariff increases right now. And that's what's making this inflation rate a little bit tamer than people feared.
  • David, does this just justify what the market's already sussed out, which is that inflation fears were overblown earlier this year? The Fed can keep cutting it potentially below 3% by the end of next year, and that it's not going to cause a huge inflation problem.
    Host
  • David Kelly
    Well, I never thought we had a long term inflation problem, but I think it is still early days on the tariff effects. What's going to happen is, you know, right now retail retailers feel like they can't pass on the price increases. But early next year, you're going to have this this refund bonanza. The average income tax refund per household, we believe is going to be over $4,000 last year is 30 $200. And that is the exact time when retailers are going to feel like they can pass on these tariff increases. So I do think we've got a little bit of a spurt in tariff inflation still to come. But then, you know, if nothing else happens now, there isn't a lot of momentum in this economy and they'll slow down again and I'll cool down again. So I don't think we've got a long term inflation problem. My real question is, given how bubbly financial markets are, do you really need the Federal Reserve adding more liquidity to the party right now, or should they just, you know, hang on in there and say this is enough liquidity?
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