Gold at record high north of $5500, up 25% YTD. What's structurally changing gold and how it's traded?
Marley Kayden
Joe Cavatoni
12th record high this year. Pace is unsettling. Key factors: portfolios reassessing bond-equity relationships during policy disruption, Fed sensitivity to rates - fueling gold's diversification role. Aggressive stepping in and momentum pushed price 20%+ in first month.
Does the aggressive nature and speed of the rally concern you?
Marley Kayden
Joe Cavatoni
Yes - people getting more FOMO like at $4000/$4500. Expect short-term volatility spikes and choppy volumes. This will clear out speculation/momentum. People should think structurally about gold's portfolio role long-term.
How are changing assumptions about bonds/treasuries as traditional safe havens breaking down, pertaining to gold rally?
Marley Kayden
Joe Cavatoni
Simple assessment: bonds were stable income assets diversifying against equity risk. Now with high debt levels, stressed consumption/appetite, bonds correlate more with risk assets (in investment and reserve portfolios).
How important are geopolitical shocks/weaker dollar headlines to support gold, or is general uncertainty enough?
Marley Kayden
Joe Cavatoni
Primary tailwinds: global economic outlook conditions (inflation development, fiat currency strength/weakness). Geopolitical/systemic shock conditions will be persistent - question is which one next/unexpected.