Asks about high probability outcomes of Iran-US talks and potential military action.
Host (Brian)
Helima Croft
If US sticks with zero enrichment demand, military action is unavoidable; Iran unlikely to give up domestic enrichment rights.
Asks if US strike would target Iranian oil facilities or strictly military/nuclear targets, noting Trump doesn't want $100 oil.
Host (Brian)
Helima Croft
Initial strike likely wouldn't target key oil export hub (Kharg Island); real risk is Iranian retaliation targeting tankers/regional energy infrastructure.
Asks if conflict could be short-term or drawn out, given large military buildup.
Host (Kelly)
Helima Croft
Large military buildup creates fog of war risk; containing fallout from limited strike would be challenging, especially after Venezuela regime change operation.
Notes bullish oil bets; asks if Saudis/UAE could add more oil if Iran exports disrupted.
Host (Brian)
Helima Croft
Spare capacity sits mainly in Saudi Arabia; fewer barrels in reserve to handle supply disruptions.