I think this whole thing is laughable. The only time the Fed really matters is when it's being very aggressive in cutting rates or very aggressive at raising rates. If it's just tinkering around the edges, which is what it's clearly doing, it's irrelevant.

On the margin. The thing that is by far the most important is the whole debate around AI.

I own a lot of these stocks too. I own them all and I've owned them for years.

I found this one commentator, Gary Marcus, who's been making an argument for years that LLM models as they keep scaling will start to lose their efficaciousness. When I started reading him 9 months ago, he was the only one.

Then ChatGPT-5 comes out, and the immediate reaction by all these people who know a hell of a lot more than me is that the improvement in ChatGPT-5 is a hell of a lot less over 4 than 4 was over 3.

All of a sudden Gary Marcus is not the lone wolf anymore. Ilya Sutskever, one of the founders of OpenAI, comes out and says exactly the same thing, that scaling LLM models is a dead end, and that we have to return to basic research. A lot of other people are starting to say the same thing.

If this Gary Marcus argument is right, you're going to start to see more and more people start to say this. Then at some point, companies like Microsoft, if this becomes true, they're going to start buying fewer chips.

I'm not doing anything, I'm not selling anything. But this argument makes me nervous. I pay attention to it every day.