Investors must differentiate between the war and oil price. Markets care about oil price, making Strait of Hormuz pivotal. Iranian tanker attacks are causing oil price to rise, weighing on stocks, but stocks are resilient. $100 oil is not the same burden as 10-15 years ago due to inflation; economy can overcome it if it doesn't last too long.

Given low unemployment, oil needs to be well into mid-$100s to cause economic strain. $100 oil is substantially less burdensome than historically. To really impact growth, oil needs to be above $150 sustainably.

Expects a big spike in March CPI/Core PCE. Fed will look past headline as temporary. If oil stays high for 60-90 days, it filters into underlying inflation as businesses incorporate higher transport costs, creating an inflation problem and bringing Fed rate hikes back on table.

No, not just geopolitical risk. Three headwinds: 1) Geopolitical/oil risk, 2) Private credit strain, 3) AI anxiety replacing AI enthusiasm. These are a growing weight on stocks. Private credit is a growing problem overlooked due to war, and AI/tech leadership uncertainty persists.

No. Software earnings strength is expected; the issue is long-term terminal value given AI adoption. Unresolved AI questions: ROI on AI spending and how to value companies shifting from positive to negative free cash flow due to AI investment. Software companies are due for a bounce but core questions remain.