China's economy is weakening, but its stock market is up significantly. Is this sustainable?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
Yes, it is sustainable because the stock market looks forward. China's goal is to overtake the US in tech (AI, chips), and money is flowing there, not to consumers. The government prioritizes tech growth over consumer revival.
Will tech excitement significantly impact or revive China's economy?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
No. Reviving the economy requires pushing the consumer sector like the US, which won't happen. Emphasis is on industry/tech, which won't show immediately in GDP. Past 7-8% growth is gone due to older, smaller population.
Aren't there risks investing in China when fundamentals (consumption, property) are weak?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
Yes, avoid property and consumer sectors. The tech sector is different and where to look. The macro picture is not a good indicator for China investment.
What are you seeing in fund flows? Rotation from US to Asia/China?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
People are diversifying from the US because it has done so well. They are shifting to international markets like China, India, Korea, Taiwan.
Is China benefiting from geopolitical developments in Latin America/Middle East?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
China is not doing too well in Latin America (e.g., Venezuela), but is a major exporter there. Growth will be in tech, and the US will still buy Chinese goods.
Other emerging markets with potential? Brazil, Argentina?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
Vietnam and Taiwan look good. Brazil is a question mark due to political change.
How do you view Southeast Asian economies (Thailand, Indonesia)?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
They're doing fine but not exciting. Their export push hasn't been good, and government structure limits focus. Vietnam is better due to government support for tech and exports.
What's your take on precious metals (gold, silver) in 2026? JPMorgan says gold could reach $5000.
speaker1
Mark Mobius
Precious metals have gotten too hot and are very volatile. Many arguments for them to go higher are linked to a weaker US dollar, but the dollar could turn stronger if US GDP growth improves this year, making metals unattractive.
At what level would you buy gold again?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
I would not buy at this level. Maybe 20% lower. It might be a good time to take some profits.
How much cash are you holding?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
About 20% in cash because markets are pretty wild and high.
India disappointed last year. Will 2026 be different?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
Yes, the market is doing very well and will continue. I take a longer view. India has problems (bureaucracy) but still has 6-7% growth. Modi is trying to curb bureaucracy and open the economy, which will boost tech investment.
You forecast 12-15% returns for India. What will drive that?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
1) Huge young consumer market (1.2-1.3B people, mostly under 30). 2) Rapid employment growth in electronics. India has the capability to become a major semiconductor producer to catch up with China and the US.
How to position in Indian tech/semiconductors given low valuations?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
Many semiconductor startups aren't listed, so exposure is difficult. Look at software companies (chip software is already produced in India) and companies assembling/manufacturing consumer electronics that are moving upstream.
Why is India the top market for the foreseeable future?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
1) Incredible size. 2) Huge population. 3) High capacity to absorb global tech due to English-speaking, educated elite. States compete, creating a very open and prosperous economy.
How to navigate headwinds like weak rupee and US-India trade tensions?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
The Modi-Trump situation is not as bad as it looks; it's bargaining. Indians are terrific bargainers. Trade with both the US and China will do well. Manufacturing is transferring from China to India, which is exciting.
What's the weight of India in your portfolio? Still 20%, targeting 30%?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
Yes, 20% now, potentially going to 30%. Within that, we are diversified across many Indian industries.
Is investing in Adani still investing in India?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
Adani is a global infrastructure firm, but don't put all eggs in one basket. Look at other great companies, especially in software.
What is the one Indian asset to hold in 2026 for best returns?
speaker1
Mark Mobius
Look at the consumer sector (retailing, consumer goods) as most exciting now, then move into consumer technology.