Irony of European banks moving to New York as it elects socialist mayor, sees this as turning point in primacy of paper over rock - favors hard assets

Dollar index strength supported by financial activities in dollars globally, UBS move unlikely to dramatically provide new dollar bid

K-shaped economy with financial market participants feeling indestructible while lower-end consumers face utility bill delinquencies, subprime auto loan defaults, and mortgage delinquencies

Agrees with Gunlock on private credit being garbage lending, sees largest corporate bankruptcy cycle since 2015 credit bust

65% of junk-rated debt needs to refinance at rates still way above prior levels, extend-and-pretend games continuing

Mischief that took place around 0% financing will be exposed, problems will move up quality chain and surprise by how far it touches

Main concern is innocent Main Street victims whose pensions invested in private credit alternatives now facing liquidity issues

Gold flush at $4,000 removed Johnny-come-lately retail investors but downside risk limited, fundamentals unchanged

Gold sniffing out Fed balance sheet expansion coming soon, forget Fed funds rate - it's all about balance sheet

No unemployment data better than bad data during turning points when models overstate job creation

One in five Russell 3000 companies cannot service debt with income, corporate stress masked by 7-10 strong companies

Tariffs not tax on consumer if consumer unwilling to pay, historically absorbed by producers to maintain market share

Fed forced to provide liquidity not to fight inflation or support growth but to prevent failed Treasury auctions

Matter of time before Fed broadly re-expands balance sheet and buys longer maturities to accomplish what rate cuts failed to do

Consumer delinquencies at worst rate since global financial crisis contradicts strong employment narrative

Rates in unusual horizontal pattern for three years, will break higher or lower - catalyst for lower would be recession

Risk appetite not on dimmer but on/off - can quickly reverse causing massive wealth effect reversal like 2007

Gold should be $5,000+, Fed balance sheet could reach $12-15 trillion in next credit meltdown

Alternative to gold for AI boom: buy energy stocks as levered bet on AI future dependent on scarce energy