People are worried about Treasury interest expense and 6.2% budget deficit during expansion, fearing interest expense will be out of control.

Only 1.7% of Treasury issuance is 20+ years, 84% is T-bills, making T-bill market massive compared to total fixed income.

Long-term rates rising globally (US, UK, Japan, Germany) despite Fed cutting rates and minimal long-term issuance.

Gold has had ridiculous returns, silver up over 100% - silver joining speculative frenzy is bad sign foretelling financial problems.

Gold still has place in portfolio; commodities broadly have quietly started rallying with Bloomberg Commodity Index above 200-day MA.

Crude oil not inflating, gradually declining, futures curve forecasts high $50s for next 12 months - positive for inflation side of Fed's mandate.