• The dollar will be more sensitive to poor data releases in the coming weeks than to good. Either way, it's time to reassess the outlook for the greenback. Jane joins us now for more. And welcome to the program. What data are you focused on?
    Host
  • Jane Foley
    You know what? Any data, I think at this point, but particularly, of course, the labor data and the CPI data, if and when we get it. But, you know, we all know that that's going to be pretty confusing. Perhaps in October it will be affected by these shutdowns.
  • Jane Foley
    But I think we learned something particularly yesterday about positioning for the US dollar, and that is probably going to tell us how the dollar is going to react, because when that ADP data came out yesterday, the dollar sold off perhaps more aggressively than I thought it would on that data.
  • Jane Foley
    And that, I think, tells us that the market isn't quite so short of the dollar anymore. And we got to remember that whilst the dollar remains the worst performing G10 currency in the year to date, actually it's done pretty well in the second half of the year to date.
  • Jane Foley
    And yesterday after that data, you know, it was the Norwegian krona that was the best performer. But, you know, last week it was the dollar that was the best performing G10 currency in the year, too, in the second half of the year to date.
  • Jane Foley
    And now I think we're in this more balanced position for the dollar. And that, I think, is going to be crucial going into these data numbers and your words. It's time to reassess the outlook for the greenback against what is it against a single currency, the euro.
  • Jane Foley
    For the story of the moment, the Japanese yen? You know, I think all of Asia, but I think the yen is perhaps bigger fundamentals.
  • Jane Foley
    We saw what seem to be a little bit more verbal intervention by the new finance minister in the Japanese parliament this morning. A little bit more push back. She appears to be coming more uncomfortable with the yen.
  • Jane Foley
    And actually we had some indications out earlier in the week from the Bank of Japan with respect to their previous policy meeting. You know, we can't write off the risk of a of a December interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan.
  • Jane Foley
    That is still going to be in a very much so a live meeting. So, you know, there is the possibility that we do get maybe an interest rate hike, that we may even get intervention. I think the market is going to be wary about .55.
  • Jane Foley
    So there is very much a yen story going on. There is very much there is a cable story, a sterling story going on. But, you know, the common denominator here is, is the dollar. And it doesn't seem to have an awful lot of strong direction right now.
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