We are cautious on oil. We think oil is going to trade weakly. This is a world that's over supplied already with oil. Venezuela oil is famously difficult to extract. This could increase supply over time, but it's not something we think changes the energy picture significantly.

The market probably going to go into 2026 more focused on the questions around tech, more focused on the questions around the Fed.

Credit has run out of road. The dynamics are starting to shift. We think there's going to be more issuance in US credit next year, about a trillion dollars net supply in investment grade. More supply, more aggressiveness, that starts to shift factors while the equity market is still supported by earnings growth.

We think US equities outperform the rest of the world. We think the dollar weakens in the first half of the year but strengthens in the second half.

It has a much better earnings story. Earnings growth has been good in 2025 and we think that continues into 2026. If the Fed is cutting, if the economy is holding up, if earnings are growing, we generally don't think the multiple contracts.

The European picture is a little bit more muted from an animal spirits perspective. It's also a weaker earnings story. Europe doesn't have the same tech tailwind behind it. We still think European equities will be up mid-single digits, but a less enthusiastic rise versus the US.