Fading geopolitical risk premium in oil is the main event, providing a green light for tech longs. Lower energy prices shelve JPY intervention risk as FX vol collapses. The new Fed chair's focus on a "trimmed-mean" inflation definition is a dovish tell, despite QT noise. The real signal is the structural breakdown in stock-bond correlation; multi-asset books must adapt to this new regime.
Yields
implicit
RUT
explicit
Metals
implicit
Bloomberg
5.5
Financial Media
Anthony Stevens 3.0
Financial Media
Anthony Stevens 3.0
5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM
dxy
Yen pressure abating and oil in Japan's favor suggests dollar strength may pause, but no clear directional call on DXY.
ndx
Anthony Stevens says the Anthropic capital raise and lower oil prices create a 'pretty decent environment for the tech trade in particular', implying near-term upside for Nasdaq/tech.
rut
Stevens notes equities were relaxed with Brent at 105 and now at 98 there's 'more happiness', suggesting broad equity upside including small caps.
wti
Brent at 98... there's just going to be a little bit more happiness
Don't chase the US-Iran deal narrative. What's on the table is a fragile, interim ceasefire, not a real accord. Trump is politically trapped: he needs lower oil prices pre-midterms but faces huge domestic blowback for a weak deal. Iran knows it has leverage. This is a temporary de-escalation to open the Strait, kicking the can on core nuclear issues. The structural risk premium in oil isn't going away. Fade the knee-jerk selloff.
Yields
NDX
RUT
implicit
Metals
USD
Bloomberg
5.5
Financial Media
Kevin Whitelaw 3.0
Financial Media
Kevin Whitelaw 3.0
5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM
wti
A deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would remove a key supply disruption, pushing oil prices down in the near term.
yields
A deal that lowers oil prices would reduce inflation pressure, potentially allowing the Fed more room to ease, which would push yields lower.
Geopolitical risk premium in energy is structural, not transient, keeping inflation sticky and forcing central bank divergence. BOJ is the cleanest hawkish bet, set for a 1% hike in June on domestic wage strength, ignoring external noise. RBA is next if CPI pass-through confirms. Fed remains inflation-focused, capping risk assets. The key macro trade is long North Asia (tech exporters) vs. short South/SE Asia (commodity importers) as the growth gap widens.
implicit
NDX
RUT
explicit
Metals
implicit
Westpac
7.0
Commercial Bank
Diliana Jane 7.5
Commercial Bank
Diliana Jane 7.5
5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM
dxy
Geopolitical risks and lingering inflation may keep the dollar supported in the near term, but the Fed's focus on inflation and potential rate hikes could eventually weigh on growth expectations, leading to cautious dollar weakness.
ndx
The Fed remains focused on inflation control, which limits upside for growth/tech stocks. No explicit tech direction given.
wti
Even if we do get a deal, it doesn't mean energy prices suddenly revert back to normal... the impact on energy prices remains at least for the next few months
yields
Inflation risks remain elevated for the remainder of the year, and central banks (RBA, BOJ, Fed) are expected to hike or remain hawkish, pushing yields higher.
Tokyo's fiscal consolidation narrative is fracturing. The PM's supplementary budget is a populist capitulation for subsidies, not a pro-growth stimulus. This fiscal slippage adds direct pressure to the JGB market, complicating the BOJ's normalization path. The real growth story is the long-term, structural pivot to strategic sectors, especially the newly unshackled defense industry. The 'virtuous cycle' remains fragile; policy is reactive and ad-hoc.
implicit
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
implicit
New York University
1.8
University
Amy Catalinac 7.0
University
Amy Catalinac 7.0
5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM
dxy
Japan's fiscal expansion and potential BOJ hikes could support the yen, contributing to cautious dollar weakness.
yields
The supplementary budget and backtracking on fiscal discipline, combined with BOJ rate hike expectations, put upward pressure on JGB yields.