Strong May jobs report (hiring surge, steady 4.3% unemployment) boosts Fed hike bets. Wages grew but at a 4-year low (3.4% YoY), suggesting incomes lag inflation. Labor force grew only 83k after months of decline. Market now prices ~50% chance of a hike by year-end, but one-month data is volatile. New Fed Chair Warsh faces a hawkish tilt; first meeting likely holds rates steady with hawkish guidance.
implicit
implicit
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Bloomberg
5.5
Financial Media
Michael McKee 4.0
Financial Media
Michael McKee 4.0
6/6/2026 1:17:06 AM
ndx
McKee discusses the tech selloff context (Nasdaq down 3.2%+), linking it to rate hike fears from the strong jobs report. Higher yields pressure growth/tech stocks.
yields
McKee notes the market is pricing a ~50% chance of a rate hike by year-end, with yields moving higher. He implies the Fed is more likely to hold or hike than cut, given strong jobs data and broadening inflation risks.
The market prices a 50% chance of a 50bp hike vs 50% chance of no change, averaging to 25bp. Jobs are in low-wage sectors (not tech/finance), which could still force the Fed to hike if prolonged high gas prices affect inflation expectations. Inflation swaps expect next CPI to be the high at 4.3%, then fall below 4% as oil futures curve remains backward-sloping.
explicit
NDX
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
Bloomberg
5.5
Financial Media
Ira Jersey 4.5
Financial Media
Ira Jersey 4.5
6/6/2026 1:17:06 AM
wti
The oil futures curve is still backward sloping... the market is still thinking that oil and gas prices are going to be lower in 2 or 3 months than they are right now.
yields
The market is now pricing for an interest rate hike by the end of this year... basically a 50% chance that they might hike by 50 basis points and a 50% chance they leave things unchanged.
Despite today's selloff (S&P -2%, Nasdaq -4%+), Goldman remains constructive. Institutional demand for equity offerings is robust; hedge funds are highly hedged (record short macro vs long single stocks), indicating healthy skepticism. Retail continues to buy absent job losses. Systematic/CTA positioning is full but small relative to other flows. S&P has a clear path to 8000+ this year; dips are buying opportunities.
Yields
implicit
Oil
Metals
USD
Goldman Sachs
9.0
Investment Bank $2500.00B
John Flood 9.0
Investment Bank $2500.00B
John Flood 9.0
6/6/2026 1:17:06 AM
ndx
Flood is constructive on equities overall, sees dips as buying opportunities, and notes strong demand for tech/AI offerings. He mentions memory/semiconductors as fairly priced with room to run. This implies a positive medium-term view on NDX despite today's selloff.
rut
Flood notes retail continues to buy absent job losses, and the strong jobs report supports consumer spending. He sees a clear path for S&P to 8000, implying broad market strength that would include small caps. Dow Transports (often a RUT proxy) were up 1.3% on the day.