Joe Lavorgna: Pres. Trump has put in place policies that benefit middle- and lower-income workers

Yields cautious down , medium term, interviewee explicit

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NDX up , medium term, interviewee implicit

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U.S. Treasury 8.0
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Joe Lavorgna 7.0

Joe Lavorgna: Pres. Trump has put in place policies that benefit middle- and lower-income workers

ndx

Strongly implies positive equity market outlook by stating 'the equity market performed well' as a reflection of 'confidence in the policies' and forecasting a 'boom next year' driven by productivity, capex, and AI. Tight credit spreads and strong bond market performance also support a risk-on environment.

yields

you do need lower rates... to grease the skids of more investment spending... There are pockets of the economy that are soft and that's reflective of rates needing to come down... you could have much lower rates Argues lower rates are needed to support investment (capex) and that current soft economic pockets reflect this need. Believes increased productive capacity from investment is disinflationary, allowing for lower rates as the economy reaches potential.

22 calls

+3

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

11/12/2025 10:28:48 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.27%	-0.13%
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10/27/2025 10:05:11 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+3.77%	+1.88%
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9/11/2025 10:26:45 PM	long term cautious down	60 days later	+1.45%	-0.73%
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8/6/2025 7:18:34 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.14%	+0.07%

Show all 20 yields results

Asks about Fed chair candidates and Kevin Warsh's past credibility on being willing to raise rates aggressively.

Host (Joe)
Joe Lavorgna

States there are four great, familiar candidates. The President wants someone objective to assess a potential productivity boom from his policies, including AI and 100% expensing for capital expenditures.

We're already seeing the boom in GDP data and will see it more evidently next year.
Asks if Lavorgna thinks rates could go lower and if the economy is ready for 5% growth.

Host (Joe)
Joe Lavorgna

The economy is very healthy. We could have a real big boom next year, but we need lower rates to grease the skids for more investment spending, especially in infrastructure and factories.

Non-financial corporate productivity growth is up 3.5% in the last four quarters.
Asks if the economy would run too hot.

Host (Joe)
Joe Lavorgna

Doesn't think it will run too hot. Inflation expectations are stable, the yield curve is flat, and tariffs haven't had the negative effect predicted.

There are pockets of the economy that are soft, reflecting that rates need to come down. Inflation is a lagging indicator. Building productive capacity through capex is inherently disinflationary, allowing for lower rates as the economy reaches full potential.
Cites a Wall Street Journal piece arguing tariffs create uncertainty, hurting manufacturing job growth.

Host (Joe)
Joe Lavorgna

Capex grew nearly 15% in real terms in the first half of the year, the biggest increase since 2011-2012. Capex leads the hiring cycle, so manufacturing jobs are coming.

The 100% expensing for factories in the recent bill is a huge incentive. The IRS is finalizing guidelines, so next year should see a huge factory boom. Lower rates will also help, as President Trump argued in 2018.
Asks why affordability is a concern if wages are rising faster than inflation.

Host (Joe)
Joe Lavorgna

Rates are a big driver of low home affordability. We need to get rates down.

Policies like no tax on tips and overtime will lead to huge increases in real after-tax income. Blue-collar wages are up 1.6% annualized, one of the biggest increases in 60 years at the start of a new administration.
Joe Lavorgna

Markets reflect confidence in a boom next year: tight credit spreads, strong bond market performance, and strong equity market performance.

The President's policies benefit middle and lower income workers. Give it more time for everything to take hold.
Asks if we will grow out of the deficit and if we should raise taxes on the rich.

Host (Joe)
Joe Lavorgna

We don't have a revenue problem; revenues are robust at over 17% of GDP. The problem is on the spending side.

If the economy grows at 3%, which is doable given productivity trends, we will raise about $4 trillion more than CBO predicts, benefiting the long-term budget outlook.
Asks about eliminating the stepped-up basis at death, arguing it wouldn't hurt growth.

Host (Andrew)
Joe Lavorgna

We should keep taxes on labor and capital as low as possible to create growth, goods, services, industries, and jobs.

Deregulation is also very powerful for getting businesses to grow, hire, and expand.
Joe Lavorgna

Forecasts 3% real GDP growth next year as very doable, referencing private sector forecasts.

In the first Trump administration, the economy grew almost 3.5%. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act effectively paid for itself. The deficit numbers have improved.

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