Smead does not directly discuss the dollar, but his thesis of persistent inflation and higher yields would typically support a stronger dollar. However, he also expects a flight to safety during a crash, which could strengthen the dollar temporarily. The net effect is unclear, so sideways is the most conservative inference.

Smead mentions gold as an asset class that was favored in the 1970s/80s high-inflation environment, and he implies a pivot back to hard assets. He also notes that gold is selling off today, but his overall thesis of persistent inflation and a stock market crash supports higher gold prices.

The AI and chip boom is a mania... it's a virtual guarantee that they're going to crash and burn at some point in time.

Smead is bearish on the S&P 500 (large caps) but sees opportunity in the 'other 40%' of stocks, which are more representative of the Russell 2000. He specifically likes regional banks and homebuilders, which are heavily weighted in the RUT. His rotation into these value-oriented, domestically-focused stocks implies a cautious bullish view on the Russell 2000 relative to the NDX.

The people that think if we settle up with Iran that the price of oil is going to go back to 60 bucks a barrel, they are either drinking the wrong thing or smoking the wrong thing.

We're coming to the end of an era of extremely low interest rates... interest rates that settle into something closer to the average of the last 40 years.