The market is driven by short-term technicals and positioning, leading to whipsaw moves. A correction via rotation is possible, not a sharp index decline. The Fed is in a timeout, but inflation is broadening beyond oil, making a rate hike more likely than a cut, though likely after the midterms. The bond market's reaction to any easing is a key constraint.
implicit
explicit
explicit
Metals
USD
Charles Schwab
7.8
Asset Manager $890.00B
Liz Ann Sonders 8.5
Asset Manager $890.00B
Liz Ann Sonders 8.5
6/9/2026 9:27:50 PM
ndx
The average member maximum drawdown in the Nasdaq is -38%.
| 5/29/2026 6:00:30 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -3.60% | -3.60% |
| 5/20/2026 9:00:35 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +2.19% | +2.19% |
| 5/14/2026 3:30:29 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.59% | +0.59% |
| 5/11/2026 4:33:03 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.24% | -0.24% |
| 5/9/2026 5:00:57 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +4.07% | +4.07% |
| 5/8/2026 7:01:43 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -1.11% | -0.56% |
| 5/6/2026 6:30:38 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.75% | +1.75% |
| 3/17/2026 1:00:03 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.97% | -0.97% |
| 3/13/2026 1:00:26 AM | short term down | 7 days later | -1.89% | +1.89% |
| 3/10/2026 1:00:27 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.24% | -1.24% |
| 3/9/2026 3:30:01 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.21% | -1.21% |
| 3/3/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.50% | +0.50% |
| 2/18/2026 5:01:08 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.72% | -0.36% |
| 2/5/2026 2:00:23 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.50% | -0.50% |
| 2/4/2026 2:00:00 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.36% | -2.36% |
| 1/27/2026 2:00:35 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.09% | -1.09% |
| 11/20/2025 7:30:15 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.11% | +4.11% |
| 11/18/2025 6:00:07 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.95% | -0.95% |
| 11/7/2025 3:01:02 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | -1.05% | -1.05% |
| 11/5/2025 8:18:35 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +1.61% | +0.80% |
| 11/3/2025 6:30:01 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +0.69% | +0.35% |
| 11/1/2025 1:00:33 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.39% | -1.39% |
| 10/27/2025 5:01:01 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.15% | -0.15% |
| 10/23/2025 3:00:52 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +3.00% | +1.50% |
| 10/8/2025 1:00:07 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.07% | +1.03% |
| 10/1/2025 5:00:02 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.21% | -0.21% |
| 9/13/2025 1:29:51 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +1.92% | +1.92% |
| 8/11/2025 5:30:31 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.53% | -0.53% |
rut
The guest describes a market driven by short-term technical rotations. The Russell 2000 is mentioned as having a massive gain on the day, but the overall framework of whipsaw moves and rotation applies to small caps as well.
wti
Given how low stockpiles are, without an imminent opening of the Strait of Hormuz, leaders at Chevron and Exxon cited numbers as much as $150 in a matter of a few weeks.
| 6/1/2026 6:00:30 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -2.60% | -3.90% |
| 6/1/2026 3:30:31 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -2.60% | -2.60% |
| 5/29/2026 4:00:33 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.91% | +0.46% |
| 5/28/2026 3:30:30 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +9.91% | +4.96% |
| 5/27/2026 7:19:54 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +5.47% | -5.47% |
| 5/26/2026 4:30:11 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +3.92% | -3.92% |
| 5/21/2026 4:30:11 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -8.20% | -4.10% |
| 5/20/2026 3:30:13 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +2.55% |
| 5/19/2026 4:00:55 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -0.84% |
| 5/15/2026 7:01:24 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -15.96% | -7.98% |
| 5/13/2026 4:07:44 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +9.79% |
| 5/12/2026 6:01:10 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +3.78% |
| 5/12/2026 3:43:59 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +7.56% |
| 5/11/2026 6:01:37 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 4:33:03 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +3.17% |
| 5/11/2026 3:30:59 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +3.17% |
| 5/6/2026 7:01:28 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.77% | +7.77% |
| 5/6/2026 6:30:38 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +7.77% | -3.89% |
| 5/1/2026 6:30:15 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -7.85% | +3.92% |
| 5/1/2026 5:30:10 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -7.85% | +3.92% |
| 5/1/2026 4:30:29 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 4/27/2026 6:00:43 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +6.49% |
| 4/27/2026 4:30:46 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +6.49% |
| 4/27/2026 3:45:31 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +3.25% |
| 4/24/2026 7:01:37 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | +12.75% | +6.38% |
| 4/24/2026 3:30:34 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +10.43% | -5.21% |
| 4/17/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/17/2026 6:00:59 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/17/2026 3:32:53 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -3.77% |
| 4/17/2026 1:00:06 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/13/2026 4:31:01 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/11/2026 2:00:47 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | -9.56% | +14.34% |
| 4/3/2026 2:00:27 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 4/3/2026 12:14:01 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 3/27/2026 6:00:24 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/24/2026 6:00:01 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +1.06% | +0.53% |
| 3/24/2026 4:30:32 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +13.91% | +6.95% |
| 3/24/2026 2:00:29 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +13.91% | -6.95% |
| 3/23/2026 6:00:33 PM | medium term cautious up | 20 days later | +7.29% | +3.64% |
| 3/20/2026 7:58:07 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +16.74% | +16.74% |
| 3/19/2026 3:39:50 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -8.14% |
| 3/19/2026 2:34:25 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -8.14% | -4.07% |
| 3/18/2026 5:00:40 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -3.94% | -5.91% |
| 3/17/2026 6:01:27 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.50% | -8.50% |
| 3/17/2026 2:31:24 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.50% | -8.50% |
| 3/13/2026 1:00:26 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -5.74% |
| 3/9/2026 6:15:03 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/9/2026 5:30:33 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/3/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +40.40% |
| 1/7/2026 6:30:03 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 12/30/2025 10:30:10 PM | long term down | 61 days later | +24.05% | -24.05% |
| 12/22/2025 5:01:11 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.51% | -0.51% |
| 12/17/2025 4:30:43 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.97% | +3.97% |
| 12/11/2025 7:30:17 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.61% | +2.61% |
| 10/14/2025 5:34:13 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.29% | +0.64% |
| 9/25/2025 6:01:25 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -6.00% | -6.00% |
| 8/7/2025 12:00:18 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.93% | -1.93% |
yields
The guest notes the 10-year yield has a sharp inverse correlation with equities and that the bond market pushed back against prior easing attempts. She implies yields will remain elevated or rise if the Fed attempts to ease, as the market will see it as going too far.
