Moelis Co-President signals the M&A cycle is structurally driven, not waiting for a macro all-clear. The AI arms race is a non-discretionary catalyst forcing corporate action, creating a floor for deal flow. This secular theme, plus a huge PE backlog, overrides geopolitical/rate noise. A macro tailwind (lower rates/oil) would be pure accelerant on an already-ignited M&A fire. The cycle has turned.

EQT's new €5B EU-backed fund targets Europe's chronic 'scale-up problem.' The continent produces startups but fails to create giants (US: ~250 $10B+ firms in 15 yrs vs. EU: 14). EQT's thesis: the missing piece is late-stage capital, not talent. They see 'unprecedented' growth in AI applications and will deploy into AI, quantum, and deep tech starting Q3. This is a structural bet on creating European tech champions and closing the valuation gap with the US.

GS confirms a bifurcated market. M&A is a large-cap corporate game for scale; PE remains sidelined. The only durable structural theme is AI, fueling a narrow equity rally and attracting massive sovereign wealth fund capital. Geopolitical conflict is the new inflation driver, keeping bond yields elevated and rate cuts off the table. The resulting macro impulse is stagflationary, with Europe as the structural laggard.