Commodities as Second-Order AI Beneficiaries (with Francine Lacqua)

Yields sideways

NDX

RUT

Oil sideways

Metals up , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

USD cautious down , long term, interviewee implicit

implicit

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Asset Manager $10500.00B
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Commodities as Second-Order AI Beneficiaries (with Francine Lacqua)

dxy

Discusses concentration of exposure to dollars in central banks and investor portfolios, and people starting to think 'do we really need to have as much as we've got?' Suggests a structural reassessment and diversification away from the dollar, which would be a long-term headwind.

metals

Supply is unable to respond in the short term, and we're seeing this price appreciation. So we're going to see margin growth across a lot of companies... We are only really in the first innings of what could be a very exciting commodity cycle. Demand from AI infrastructure is a massive new source meeting a supply side constrained by years of underinvestment.

8 calls

+2

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

1/26/2026 6:36:26 PM	short term sharp up	6 days later	-18.04%	-27.06%
1/20/2026 11:06:19 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+9.79%	+4.90%
1/6/2026 11:52:28 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+25.47%	+25.47%
10/14/2025 10:29:12 AM	medium term up	20 days later	-10.62%	-10.62%
10/8/2025 12:30:20 AM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+4.31%	+6.47%
9/3/2025 10:22:34 AM	medium term up	20 days later	+5.95%	+5.95%

Show all 6 metals results

wti

No explicit discussion of oil (WTI). The commodity focus is on metals and materials for AI infrastructure (copper, silver, critical minerals).

yields

No explicit view on yields. The macro thesis is about commodity demand/supply and dollar diversification, not interest rate direction.

Asks take on commodities given dollar dynamics and inflation, but valuations dominated by AI.

Francine Lacqua
Nevihan Bro

Investors focused on the 'new new thing' (AI) with one big bet. Now a reality check: where is money going, who benefits? Second-order beneficiaries are key. Money is spent on chips and physical, tangible stuff made of materials.

Resources sector became financially irrelevant relative to tech behemoths, but now seeing capital rotation and AI-driven demand translating into commodity demand, price changes, and elevated earnings.
Asks what commodities benefit most - copper, silver?

Francine Lacqua
Nevihan Bro

All of the above. Demand impact is very significant. Similar to China-led boom of early 2000s. New massive source of demand (AI) meets a market that has under-invested since 2015. Supply unable to respond short-term, leading to price appreciation and margin growth.

Excited by growth in dividends and disciplined capital allocation by companies.
Asks about gold as an alternative to US dollar assets.

Francine Lacqua
Nevihan Bro

Concentration of exposure to dollars in central banks and portfolios is being reconsidered. If moving out of US Treasuries, where to go? Euros maybe not. Flow into physical gold is a rebasing of gold prices relative to loss of purchasing power. Gold price is an outcome of lost purchasing power.

Agrees with Jim Reid's gold view, adds that speculation is in everything. The move is a reaction to dollar concentration.
Notes impact on commodities from consolidation.

Francine Lacqua
Nevihan Bro

Consolidation news (e.g., Rio Tinto, Glencore) is strong because projects needed to meet demand are enormous, requiring huge capital. History of spending by these companies hasn't been great. Consolidation allows more disciplined spending with stronger balance sheets, increasing chance of success and market cap relevance.

Geopolitical focus on critical minerals shows politicians realize their importance for the digital future. Financial markets are only just waking up to this, indicating early innings of a potential commodity cycle.

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