Joe LaVorgna, former Trump Treasury counselor, argues the Fed will have to raise rates, not cut them, due to persistent inflation (core PCE at 3.4%, services inflation near 4%). He sees the economy in a 'boom with inflation pressure' rather than a disinflationary boom. He notes AI's massive capex is adding to near-term inflation by straining commodity and energy supply. On gas prices, he says retail prices take time to adjust and rejects price gouging claims. He expects a July rate move is being priced in.
explicit
implicit
RUT
implicit
Metals
inferred
SMBC Americas
7.0
Commercial Bank
Joe LaVorgna 8.8
Commercial Bank
Joe LaVorgna 8.8
6/26/2026 2:55:39 AM
dxy
If the Fed raises rates as LaVorgna expects, the dollar would likely strengthen. He explicitly says rate cuts are off the table and hikes are coming, which supports a stronger USD.
ndx
LaVorgna argues AI's massive capex is adding to near-term inflation by straining commodity and energy supply, and that AI is 'quite the opposite' of disinflationary in the near term. This implies headwinds for tech/growth stocks (NDX) from rising rates and input costs, though he doesn't explicitly call for a sell-off.
wti
LaVorgna says oil prices moved down quickly and unexpectedly, and that residual supply-side pressure will persist for months. He doesn't predict a sharp move either way, suggesting a sideways consolidation near current levels.
yields
There's no way they're going to cut rates—they're going to raise rates in my view. The futures market is starting to price the possibility of a July move.
Rep. Steil (R-WI) argues the bipartisan housing bill has overwhelming support and will become law despite Trump's delay. He supports voter ID goals but proposes alternative routes (Real ID updates + free state IDs) to achieve election integrity. On the $88B supplemental, he wants offsets and to root out waste while ensuring military readiness. His tone is pragmatic: get tangible wins on affordability while negotiating other priorities through feasible legislative paths.
inferred
NDX
Oil
Metals
USD
U.S. House of Representatives
2.5
Government Agency
Brian Steil 6.5
Government Agency
Brian Steil 6.5
6/26/2026 2:55:39 AM
rut
Steil's focus on housing affordability legislation and bipartisan cooperation suggests a stable policy environment for small caps, but no explicit bullish or bearish signal for the Russell 2000.
yields
Steil supports offsets for the $88B supplemental and wants to root out waste, but acknowledges the need for significant defense spending. This implies upward pressure on yields from fiscal expansion, though he doesn't explicitly address bond markets.
Rep. Casten (D-IL) is encouraged the speaker will send the housing bill, seeing it as a sign Johnson is prioritizing his caucus over Trump. He calls the Save America Act a 'voter disenfranchisement bill' and argues the federal government should provide free federal IDs rather than relying on states. On the $88B supplemental, he's skeptical—calling it a 'nickel solution to a dollar problem'—and criticizes funding a war that lacked congressional approval. He supports raising the minimum wage but says fixing tariff and foreign policy issues is the real solution to affordability.
inferred
NDX
Oil
Metals
USD
U.S. House of Representatives
2.5
Government Agency
Sean Casten 6.5
Government Agency
Sean Casten 6.5
6/26/2026 2:55:39 AM
rut
Casten highlights that rural America is hurting due to tariff policy and Medicaid cuts, and that the supplemental is a 'nickel solution to a dollar problem.' This suggests headwinds for small caps (RUT) that are more exposed to domestic policy and trade disruptions.
yields
Casten criticizes the $88B supplemental as insufficient and calls for fixing root causes of inflation (tariffs, foreign policy). His critique implies fiscal expansion is contributing to inflationary pressures, which would push yields higher, though he doesn't explicitly address bond markets.