Fragile US-Iran ceasefire under pressure. Renewed hostilities, including attacks on vessels in Strait of Hormuz and missile alerts in UAE, signal heightened supply disruption risk for WTI. Blockade persists, US resolve firm. Options: escalation or renewed talks. Iran's FM hints at negotiation progress, but Strait remains at impasse. Short-term WTI pressure likely upward.

Iran war risk remains high as both sides lack exit strategies. US has military capability but no clear endgame; Iran overestimates its strength despite economic collapse and protests. Most likely path to resolution is a return to conflict, sustaining geopolitical risk premium for oil in the short term.

Apple considering Intel and Samsung for processors to reduce reliance on TSMC due to supply constraints; shift in global manufacturing locations; AI data centers absorbing available supply; Apple needs to diversify supply chain.

Markets are underestimating near-term inflation, driven by AI capex and energy costs, before potential productivity gains. Expect higher rates, with the BoE potentially hiking. US equities are favored conditionally on geopolitical resolution, as prolonged uncertainty increases discontinuous shock risk. Dollar strength hinges on shock type; no single diversifier.

China unlikely to help calm Iran situation; Beijing's main concern is sustainable energy supply from Iran, not regime survival. Trump wants Xi to quiet trade tensions, help with Strait of Hormuz, and show diplomatic clout. China sees Trump as the only dove in his cabinet to preserve minimal stability. Expectations for Trump-Xi summit are extremely low; any face-time is a success. China is catching up on AI and using regulatory tools to protect its technology. Beijing is of two minds about the US—preferring a declining but less adventurous US over a rules-based Biden-era one.

Novonesis CEO Baiget highlights 7% Q1 growth driven by volume and price, citing strong demand for biosolutions amid energy security concerns. Bioenergy, particularly ethanol, is a key growth driver as countries decouple from fossil fuels. Despite some consumer spending weakness in human health, overall demand remains robust. The company prioritizes organic growth via innovation and capex, maintaining flexibility for M&A. Pricing power is defended by innovation and value, with over 20% of revenue from new products. Guidance remains intact, reflecting confidence in sustained growth.