Alicia Levine of BNY Wealth maintains an 8,000 S&P target driven by broadening earnings beyond AI beneficiaries, with reasonable multiples. She warns of near-term volatility and consolidation due to parabolic AI/memory charts, and highlights concentrated risk from hyperscaler debt-funded capex creating correlations across equities, bonds, and EM. She recommends infrastructure and real assets as hedges.
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You're going to get volatility. There has to be consolidation here. Some of those charts are parabolic with the memory names... it's going to pull some of the market down with it just because they are the leaders right now.
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Levine mentions outperformance on small caps and equal weight, and that the path to 8,000 involves broadening beyond AI beneficiaries, which typically benefits small caps.
Mamta Q of PSP Growth notes AI sentiment remains positive but the elephant in the room is ever-rising capex estimates with no end in sight, shifting bottlenecks from GPUs to memory to power. Financing is becoming fragile as public equity demand is not bursting and bondholders demand higher yields for technology risk. AI has moved from technology to national security, with China leading in cheaper open-source models.
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I think there's just a lot of fragileness in the market... You have open AI delaying IPO news and all of a sudden you send shares of the whole AI trade down. And today with the SK Hynix news and Samsung news, you think demand is back up again.