Jeffrey Rosenberg discusses how the oil price shock has changed real yields more than inflation breakevens, shifting Fed policy expectations from two cuts to one hike. He notes the equity market is driven by AI momentum and earnings, while bonds focus on monetary policy. He explains that his IALT ETF provides diversification through market-neutral strategies, avoiding directional beta exposure.

Aakash Doshi describes a tale of two halves for gold: strong rally early in the year on Fed cut expectations, then a reversal as the Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, shifting market expectations to a potential Fed hike. He sees structural bullish tailwinds from geopolitical fragmentation and wider deficits, but near-term headwinds from a hawkish Fed and stronger dollar.

Michael Turrin expects a 'hold the line' quarter for Salesforce with concerns around the timeline for Agentforce monetization. He notes the company is calling for second-half re-acceleration and 11% CAGR through fiscal 2030, but current organic growth is around 7%. He sees the transition to consumption-based pricing as a multi-year process, with meaningful revenue contribution more likely in 2027 than 2026.

Eric Rosengren expects core PCE inflation to remain above 3% through year-end, driven by the oil shock and other factors like memory chip shortages. He agrees the Fed's easing bias should be removed and sees a spirited discussion ahead about how long inflation will persist. He notes the consumer has been reasonably resilient given the size of the oil shock, but consumption is weaker than expected given the AI boom and low unemployment.

Tony Roth compares the market to a mouse chasing cheese attached to a string—the 'cheese' being resolution on the Strait of Hormuz. He notes forward earnings are only 21.5x, and with strong earnings momentum (20% overall, 35% for tech), markets could be significantly higher if the strait opens. He expects rate cuts this year due to insufficient demand-side inflation, contingent on a geopolitical deal driven by midterm election considerations.

Ray Wang argues AI is not killing software—moats are data, distribution, relationships, and experience. Companies with systems of record and transactional data will survive, though seat compression is real as pricing shifts from per-user to per-task/utilization. He sees Salesforce as unfairly punished, with its transition to consumption-based pricing being similar to its pioneering of SaaS pricing. The key metric will be task utilization curves.