Julian Emanuel sees the bull market as resilient with FOMO potentially ahead, but warns that a persistent oil price shock above $4.50/gallon or triple-digit WTI for 4 months is the biggest threat to the economy and stock market. He views the SpaceX IPO as a data point on the way to higher prices, not an endpoint.

implicit

implicit
RUT

explicit
Metals
USD
Evercore ISI 8.0
Investment Bank
Julian Emanuel 8.5
6/11/2026 6:06:11 PM
ndx
Emanuel sees the bull market as resilient with FOMO potentially ahead, but warns that an oil price shock is the biggest threat. This implies a cautiously positive view on tech/NDX in the medium term, contingent on oil not spiking.
wti
The biggest threat to the bull market is whether the economy can weather a persistent oil price shock. We have targeted the 4th of July as a seminal date. If we see an unmoving, hardening regime in Iran, that will further send the price of oil higher.
3 calls
-14
slightly worse than random
yields
Emanuel acknowledges that higher yields are a rational response for long-duration assets and that past bull markets tolerated higher yields. This implies an expectation that yields may remain elevated or move slightly higher in the near term.
Maha Yahya argues that the ongoing military confrontation makes a diplomatic outcome less likely, not more. The lack of trust between the US and Iran has deepened significantly. She believes the Iranian regime can hold on until November, counting on its ability to make it difficult for President Trump and ordinary Americans as inflation and oil prices mount.
Yields
NDX
RUT

explicit
Metals
USD
Carnegie Government 3.0
Government Agency
Maha Yahya 7.0
6/11/2026 6:06:11 PM
wti
The regime is counting on making it very difficult for ordinary Americans as inflation mounts and the price of the barrel of oil increases.
2 calls
+15
slightly better than random