Both US and Iran want a deal but are haggling over final terms (Strait of Hormuz reopening, frozen assets, nuclear stockpiles). Israel's Lebanon incursion complicates but hasn't derailed talks. Oil prices reflect continued Strait disruption, not just deal uncertainty.

Oil at $93/barrel reflects continued blockage of crude, gas, and refined products through the Strait of Hormuz, not just peace deal uncertainty. Production and refinery output in the Gulf have dropped. Headline reactions to talks will cause volatility but the core driver is physical disruption.

Powell's comments on Fed credibility are important but won't move markets near-term. Investors focus on how new Chair Warsch will manage dissent within the Fed and balance high inflation vs slowing economy. A surprise drop in unemployment to 4.1% could bring forward rate hike expectations to Q4 this year.

The Strait closure has a bigger impact on chemical markets than on fuel markets: 25-30% of global ethylene volumes lost. Impact on Europe will come with a severe delay (months). Chemical prices already 70-250% of 2025 levels; consumer price increases likely in coming months.