China has gained leverage over the US through its control of critical minerals, shifting the balance of power ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. The Iran war complicates the summit, but both sides have incentives to maintain stability. The US is now more cautious in its approach to China.

China is in a stronger position to challenge US sanctions due to rare earth leverage, but still wants stability. The summit is likely to proceed despite tensions, with limited trade breakthroughs expected. AI gives the US new leverage, and China's domestic political turbulence adds uncertainty.