The long end is unhinged. Bond vigilantes are punishing G10 fiscal excess, sparking a synchronized global rout in USTs, JGBs & Gilts. Central banks have lost control. Near-term inflation is supercharged by the AI buildout & Iran war supply shocks. The new Fed Chair is trapped; any dovish pivot will be violently rejected by a market that now dictates the price of money.

Strait of Hormuz closure is the catalyst for a broad commodity shock, hitting the AI supply chain (nat gas, helium) and forcing a violent Fed pivot from cuts to hikes. This is the dominant macro theme. Japanese repatriation adds fuel to the UST sell-off, pressuring long-duration assets. The trade is to short frothy US/Korea AI (NDX) and find relative value in cheaper, more efficient China AI. DXY strength is the logical consequence of a hawkish Fed.