Sri Kutcha Kventan from Aberdeen Investments discusses the inflationary outlook following the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. She believes the reopening is good news but will take time, and that the bond market is pricing in too many rate hikes. She highlights near-term inflationary pressures from AI build-out and geopolitical risks, while longer-term AI could be disinflationary. She expects the Fed to stay on hold and looks for hawkish BOJ communication to support the yen.

Eric Lonergan from Calibrate Partners argues that Japan is undergoing a profound structural shift, with nominal GDP up 23% since 2021 and underlying inflation at 2.2-2.8%. This is driving a bear market in global bonds. He believes the BOJ is not doing enough to change this dynamic. He also discusses the challenge for Fed Chair Warsh in balancing the near-term inflationary AI build-out with the longer-term disinflationary potential, warning that talking up a lower discount rate could lead to a stock market bubble.

Gautam Samarth from M&G Investment Management sees opportunities in European equities following the de-escalation in the Middle East, expecting capital to flow back. He favors emerging market energy importers like India and Indonesia. He argues that bonds offer value, especially at the long end, due to steep curves and positive real rates. He believes the BOE could plausibly cut rates by year-end if the oil price shock fades.

Emily Ashworth from Standard Chartered Bank analyzes the oil market after the US-Iran deal. She says the market has unwound some risk premium but not priced in a full return to the status quo. She expects a residual risk premium for Gulf barrels. She provides a detailed timeline for supply recovery: 30-40% in weeks, up to 80% within a year, with 10-20% requiring multi-year remediation. Key uncertainties are OPEC+ reaction and demand recovery, including US strategic reserve refilling.