Passive funds may artificially inflate SpaceX IPO demand; oversubscription multiples will signal true appetite. Anthropic releases new AI models that find flaws in minutes vs. 40 years, accelerating product cycles and revenue.

Central banks turning hawkish but policy already tight; inflation is supply-driven. Prefer European duration over US treasuries; emerging market debt selectively attractive (e.g., Brazil). Dollar supported by Fed rate hike expectations.

Software credit faces disruption with lower recoveries; over-concentrated managers will underperform. Fortress avoids AI/data center credit concentration, prefers diversified real estate credit at low LTVs with high yields. Higher-for-longer rates could trigger more opportunities.

Economy okay at headline but higher defaults, stuck assets in PE/real estate/private credit. Software loans fall off a cliff; real economy (industrials, chemicals, manufacturing) offers better opportunities. Pipeline of distressed opportunities exploded to $365B.