Jamie Rush estimates a 5 mb/d supply return implies roughly 20% price decline to $70-75. The global economy was recovering strongly before the conflict but immediately slowed after the Strait shut due to direct oil price effects, uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. Central banks are expected to remain cautious: Fed loses three cuts, ECB may hike twice. Inflation will be ~1pp higher in the US and ~1.5pp higher in UK/Europe by year-end. The oil market's role has changed structurally—$100 now feels like $190 in 2011 terms due to efficiency gains and overall price increases.

Javier Blas expects 50% of Gulf oil production to return within days and 75% within weeks after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, with full recovery taking months but not needed for market balance due to weaker demand and increased non-OPEC supply. He identifies two bullish factors (need to rebuild strategic reserves, risk of renewed closure) and two bearish factors (China's demonstrated ability to swing imports by 40%, accelerated bypass pipeline construction reducing Hormuz's strategic importance).