UK Labour government has replaced Tory chaos with its own. PM Starmer's failure is a personality problem, not a structural one. Andy Burnham's potential leadership challenge creates uncertainty for gilts, but he is a pragmatic politician unlikely to crash markets. A centrist blueprint exists, but the drawn-out process will weigh on markets.

explicit

explicit

implicit
Metals

implicit
Bloomberg 5.5
Financial Media
Adrian Wooldridge 4.0
5/15/2026 4:01:38 PM
dxy
Fed can stay on hold with steady labor market, while ECB likely hikes - this divergence could keep USD relatively stable vs EUR in near term.
ndx
AI capex $750bn, contributes ~0.5% to US GDP. Clearest beneficiary is semiconductors. Q1 cloud revenue acceleration positive.
128 calls
-1
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
5/14/2026 2:29:36 PM short term up 5 days later +0.59% +0.59%
5/14/2026 10:22:14 AM medium term down 20 days later +4.40% -4.40%
5/14/2026 12:00:33 AM short term up 5 days later +0.59% +0.59%
5/13/2026 11:31:04 PM short term up 5 days later -2.57% -2.57%
5/13/2026 10:10:31 PM short term up 5 days later -2.57% -2.57%
5/13/2026 9:18:02 PM short term up 5 days later -2.57% -2.57%
5/13/2026 5:46:04 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.57% -1.29%
5/13/2026 10:40:42 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.57% +1.29%
5/12/2026 10:17:11 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 9:45:39 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 6:29:30 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 5:44:45 PM short term down 5 days later -1.27% +1.27%
5/12/2026 2:49:50 AM short term up 5 days later -1.27% -1.27%
5/11/2026 8:32:50 PM short term up 6 days later -0.24% -0.24%
5/11/2026 3:12:21 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +4.99% +2.49%
5/11/2026 8:25:16 AM short term up 6 days later -0.24% -0.24%
5/10/2026 10:55:12 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later +4.07% +2.03%
5/8/2026 9:25:43 PM short term up 7 days later -1.11% -1.11%
5/8/2026 10:33:30 AM short term up 7 days later -1.11% -1.11%
5/8/2026 9:39:28 AM short term down 7 days later -1.11% +1.11%
5/8/2026 12:54:54 AM short term down 7 days later -1.11% +1.11%
5/6/2026 7:38:13 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +4.93% +2.47%
5/6/2026 4:25:04 PM short term up 5 days later +1.75% +1.75%
5/6/2026 7:59:28 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later +4.93% -2.47%
5/6/2026 7:07:04 AM short term up 5 days later +1.75% +1.75%
5/5/2026 12:24:00 AM short term down 5 days later +2.52% -2.52%
3/19/2026 10:26:26 PM short term down 5 days later +1.11% -1.11%
3/13/2026 6:44:24 AM short term cautious down 7 days later -1.89% +0.95%
3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM short term down 6 days later -1.21% +1.21%
3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM short term down 6 days later -1.21% +1.21%
2/24/2026 7:11:54 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -2.17% +1.08%
2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM short term down 5 days later +1.27% -1.27%
2/11/2026 10:51:35 AM short term down 5 days later +0.06% -0.06%
2/5/2026 6:10:54 AM short term down 5 days later +0.50% -0.50%
1/29/2026 9:18:07 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.59% +1.29%
1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM short term up 5 days later -2.11% -2.11%
1/8/2026 11:03:52 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.17% +0.58%
1/8/2026 10:04:31 AM short term down 5 days later -1.17% +1.17%
12/24/2025 8:43:44 AM short term up 5 days later -1.54% -1.54%
12/24/2025 7:08:10 AM short term up 5 days later -1.54% -1.54%
12/23/2025 7:24:06 AM short term up 5 days later -0.51% -0.51%
12/22/2025 9:48:16 PM short term up 6 days later -0.24% -0.24%
12/22/2025 2:42:18 PM short term cautious down 6 days later -0.24% +0.12%
12/19/2025 9:48:49 PM short term up 7 days later +0.25% +0.25%
12/19/2025 10:45:28 AM short term up 7 days later +0.25% +0.25%
12/19/2025 1:45:14 AM medium term up 21 days later +1.28% +1.28%
12/18/2025 11:18:27 PM short term up 5 days later +1.22% +1.22%
12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM short term down 5 days later +1.22% -1.22%
12/18/2025 8:02:41 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.22% -0.61%
12/17/2025 11:36:40 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +2.27% -1.14%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM short term up 5 days later +3.30% +3.30%
12/11/2025 10:26:28 AM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.18% -1.09%
12/10/2025 11:45:39 PM short term up 5 days later -2.16% -2.16%
12/1/2025 2:08:24 PM short term down 6 days later +0.28% -0.28%
11/28/2025 12:53:14 PM long term up 60 days later +0.83% +0.83%
11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM short term up 5 days later +0.42% +0.42%
11/25/2025 4:59:14 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.42% -0.21%
11/25/2025 5:18:20 AM short term up 5 days later +0.42% +0.42%
11/24/2025 11:41:23 PM short term up 6 days later +1.30% +1.30%
11/21/2025 1:49:16 PM short term down 7 days later +1.89% -1.89%
11/21/2025 10:59:48 AM short term down 7 days later +1.89% -1.89%
11/19/2025 1:40:42 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +4.01% -2.00%
11/19/2025 1:30:46 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +4.01% -2.00%
11/18/2025 1:29:07 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.95% -0.47%
11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM short term down 5 days later +0.95% -0.95%
11/11/2025 7:51:50 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.81% +1.41%
11/11/2025 2:03:07 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.81% +1.41%
11/11/2025 2:03:07 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -2.81% +1.41%
11/11/2025 1:10:20 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.81% -1.41%
11/11/2025 10:07:03 AM short term cautious up 5 days later -2.81% -1.41%
11/10/2025 2:14:07 PM short term up 6 days later -2.87% -2.87%
11/10/2025 10:55:42 AM short term up 6 days later -2.87% -2.87%
11/10/2025 10:55:42 AM short term up 6 days later -2.87% -2.87%
11/7/2025 10:12:11 AM short term down 7 days later -3.17% +3.17%
11/6/2025 11:18:53 PM short term down 5 days later +1.83% -1.83%
11/5/2025 5:35:23 AM short term down 5 days later +1.61% -1.61%
11/4/2025 2:20:08 PM short term down 5 days later -0.03% +0.03%
10/27/2025 7:25:44 AM short term up 6 days later -0.15% -0.15%
10/2/2025 9:07:28 AM short term up 5 days later +1.42% +1.42%
10/2/2025 9:07:28 AM short term up 5 days later +1.42% +1.42%
10/1/2025 10:25:13 PM short term down 5 days later -0.21% +0.21%
9/26/2025 1:25:54 AM short term down 7 days later +1.49% -1.49%
9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM short term up 7 days later -0.60% -0.60%
9/19/2025 8:51:38 AM short term up 7 days later -0.60% -0.60%
9/19/2025 7:17:12 AM short term up 7 days later -0.60% -0.60%
9/12/2025 7:15:05 AM short term up 7 days later +1.92% +1.92%
9/11/2025 8:51:28 PM short term up 5 days later +0.55% +0.55%
9/10/2025 8:24:03 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.17% +1.76%
9/4/2025 9:41:48 AM short term up 5 days later +0.83% +0.83%
9/3/2025 12:19:28 AM short term up 5 days later +0.88% +0.88%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM short term up 6 days later +2.29% +2.29%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM short term up 6 days later +2.29% +2.29%
8/28/2025 7:11:09 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -+0.00% +0.00%
8/27/2025 1:15:21 AM short term up 5 days later -1.99% -1.99%
8/25/2025 12:19:20 PM short term up 7 days later -1.25% -1.25%
8/21/2025 7:19:44 AM short term down 5 days later +0.29% -0.29%
8/20/2025 11:22:19 PM short term down 5 days later +1.65% -1.65%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM short term down 5 days later +1.65% -1.65%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM short term down 5 days later +1.65% -1.65%
8/12/2025 8:37:14 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.57% +0.28%
8/7/2025 9:54:40 AM short term up 5 days later +1.01% +1.01%
8/5/2025 10:31:22 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.91% -0.45%
7/25/2025 12:39:07 PM short term up 7 days later -0.72% -0.72%
7/16/2025 9:14:41 AM short term up 5 days later -0.08% -0.08%
Show all 104 ndx results
rut
UK political uncertainty is a domestic issue. The RUT (Russell 2000) is US-focused and not directly mentioned. No clear directional signal for US small caps.
wti
Base case assumes Strait reopens reasonably soon. If not, could cause further inflation and economic impact. Energy shock hasn't fully landed yet.
yields
Gilts are tumbling... underperforming peers... the pound has fallen.
161 calls
-+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
5/14/2026 10:22:14 AM medium term up 20 days later -2.57% -2.57%
5/14/2026 8:48:58 AM short term up 5 days later -0.50% -0.50%
5/13/2026 2:30:46 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.67% +0.67%
5/13/2026 2:30:46 PM short term up 5 days later +4.62% +4.62%
5/13/2026 10:40:42 AM medium term up 20 days later +0.67% +0.67%
5/13/2026 8:05:25 AM short term cautious up 5 days later +4.62% +2.31%
5/13/2026 7:39:00 AM short term up 5 days later +4.62% +4.62%
5/12/2026 9:34:37 AM short term up 5 days later +3.17% +3.17%
5/12/2026 2:49:50 AM short term up 5 days later +3.17% +3.17%
5/11/2026 3:42:16 PM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 3:12:21 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.27% +0.27%
5/11/2026 2:37:40 PM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 10:33:48 AM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 10:21:17 AM short term up 6 days later +3.59% +3.59%
5/11/2026 10:08:16 AM medium term down 20 days later +0.27% -0.27%
5/8/2026 11:45:15 PM medium term up 21 days later +1.47% +1.47%
5/8/2026 10:34:17 AM medium term up 21 days later +1.47% +1.47%
5/8/2026 8:52:09 AM short term up 7 days later +4.83% +4.83%
5/7/2026 11:14:07 AM medium term up 20 days later +2.09% +2.09%
5/7/2026 11:14:07 AM medium term up 20 days later +2.09% +2.09%
5/5/2026 10:43:29 AM short term up 5 days later +1.24% +1.24%
5/5/2026 9:59:09 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.24% +1.86%
5/5/2026 6:19:06 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.24% +1.86%
5/1/2026 4:44:32 PM short term up 7 days later -0.81% -0.81%
4/30/2026 2:14:39 PM short term up 5 days later -0.50% -0.50%
4/30/2026 8:02:59 AM short term up 5 days later -0.50% -0.50%
4/27/2026 7:39:37 PM short term down 6 days later +2.11% -2.11%
4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM short term up 7 days later +2.54% +2.54%
4/21/2026 4:08:13 PM short term up 5 days later +0.98% +0.98%
4/18/2026 12:01:38 AM short term sharp down 7 days later +2.02% -3.04%
4/17/2026 12:08:37 PM medium term cautious up 21 days later +3.76% +1.88%
4/15/2026 12:05:32 AM short term down 5 days later -0.39% +0.39%
4/13/2026 7:00:27 PM short term up 6 days later -0.14% -0.14%
4/10/2026 11:45:00 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -1.09% -0.55%
4/10/2026 11:41:57 PM short term cautious up 7 days later -1.09% -0.55%
4/9/2026 11:01:58 PM short term up 5 days later -0.81% -0.81%
4/3/2026 12:36:51 AM short term down 7 days later -0.88% +0.88%
4/1/2026 11:17:06 AM short term down 5 days later +0.70% -0.70%
4/1/2026 10:17:51 AM short term down 5 days later +0.70% -0.70%
3/31/2026 10:09:41 AM short term up 5 days later +0.37% +0.37%
3/30/2026 2:09:27 PM short term up 6 days later +0.56% +0.56%
3/30/2026 10:29:13 AM short term down 6 days later +0.56% -0.56%
3/30/2026 8:40:46 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.56% -0.28%
3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM short term sharp up 7 days later -0.16% -0.24%
3/27/2026 10:05:53 AM medium term up 21 days later -2.12% -2.12%
3/27/2026 2:00:21 AM short term up 7 days later -0.16% -0.16%
3/25/2026 10:19:55 AM medium term up 20 days later -3.03% -3.03%
3/23/2026 7:21:12 AM short term up 6 days later -1.14% -1.14%
3/21/2026 1:47:39 AM long term down 60 days later +5.17% -5.17%
3/20/2026 2:30:40 AM short term up 7 days later +0.18% +0.18%
3/19/2026 8:12:15 PM short term down 5 days later -1.43% +1.43%
3/13/2026 9:58:26 PM short term up 7 days later +2.70% +2.70%
3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM short term down 7 days later +2.70% -2.70%
3/13/2026 4:40:53 PM medium term cautious down 21 days later +2.73% -1.36%
3/13/2026 9:59:21 AM short term sharp up 7 days later +2.70% +4.05%
3/13/2026 6:44:24 AM short term up 7 days later +2.70% +2.70%
3/11/2026 10:02:21 AM short term down 5 days later -1.66% +1.66%
3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM short term up 6 days later +2.03% +2.03%
3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM short term up 6 days later +2.03% +2.03%
3/3/2026 9:47:37 PM short term up 5 days later +1.37% +1.37%
3/3/2026 10:53:30 AM short term up 5 days later +1.37% +1.37%
2/28/2026 1:02:34 AM medium term sharp down 21 days later +7.07% -10.60%
2/20/2026 5:23:54 PM short term up 7 days later +0.47% +0.47%
2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM short term up 5 days later -0.93% -0.93%
2/19/2026 2:30:40 PM short term up 5 days later -0.93% -0.93%
2/19/2026 8:04:55 AM medium term up 20 days later +4.58% +4.58%
2/18/2026 11:17:07 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.26% +1.63%
2/18/2026 9:44:49 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +3.26% +1.63%
2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM medium term up 20 days later -5.73% -5.73%
1/30/2026 10:19:09 AM short term up 7 days later -1.80% -1.80%
1/28/2026 1:08:47 AM short term up 5 days later +1.11% +1.11%
1/21/2026 3:54:53 PM long term up 60 days later +2.00% +2.00%
1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM short term up 5 days later -0.94% -0.94%
1/20/2026 3:56:13 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later -2.49% -3.74%
1/20/2026 5:25:20 AM short term sharp up 5 days later -0.94% -1.41%
1/8/2026 11:18:05 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later +1.34% -0.67%
12/24/2025 2:57:09 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.58% +0.29%
12/23/2025 7:24:06 AM medium term up 20 days later +0.85% +0.85%
12/22/2025 2:42:18 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.43% +0.43%
12/19/2025 10:45:28 AM medium term up 21 days later +0.43% +0.43%
12/19/2025 8:37:44 AM medium term up 21 days later +0.43% +0.43%
12/18/2025 11:18:27 PM short term down 5 days later -0.36% +0.36%
12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM medium term down 20 days later +0.77% -0.77%
12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM medium term up 20 days later +0.77% +0.77%
12/18/2025 8:02:41 AM medium term down 20 days later +0.77% -0.77%
12/17/2025 7:04:39 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later +0.53% +0.27%
12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM short term down 5 days later +0.43% -0.43%
12/11/2025 10:26:28 AM short term down 5 days later -1.03% +1.03%
12/11/2025 10:09:14 AM short term up 5 days later -1.03% -1.03%
12/9/2025 10:56:25 PM short term up 5 days later +0.43% +0.43%
12/9/2025 10:44:30 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +0.43% +0.65%
12/9/2025 6:08:48 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -0.82% -1.22%
12/8/2025 7:49:51 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later -1.67% -0.84%
12/4/2025 5:57:16 AM short term down 5 days later +0.60% -0.60%
12/1/2025 5:28:31 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +2.10% -1.05%
11/28/2025 12:53:14 PM short term cautious up 7 days later +1.86% +0.93%
11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM short term down 5 days later +2.45% -2.45%
11/25/2025 8:46:35 PM medium term down 20 days later +3.78% -3.78%
11/18/2025 10:02:58 AM short term down 5 days later -2.30% +2.30%
11/13/2025 1:46:53 PM medium term cautious down 20 days later -0.96% +0.48%
11/12/2025 2:18:30 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.27% -0.13%
11/12/2025 10:01:21 AM short term sharp down 5 days later +0.27% -0.40%
11/12/2025 7:56:58 AM short term sharp down 5 days later +0.27% -0.40%
11/11/2025 3:01:41 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.67% -0.84%
11/6/2025 11:18:53 PM short term down 5 days later -0.68% +0.68%
11/6/2025 2:13:19 PM short term down 5 days later -0.68% +0.68%
11/4/2025 12:00:38 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -1.13% -0.57%
10/21/2025 10:46:09 AM medium term up 20 days later +4.22% +4.22%
10/8/2025 9:34:41 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -3.04% +1.52%
10/2/2025 3:40:39 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.24% -0.12%
10/2/2025 12:44:17 AM short term down 5 days later +0.24% -0.24%
10/1/2025 10:52:02 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.95% -0.48%
9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM short term down 5 days later +1.36% -1.36%
9/26/2025 7:55:36 AM short term cautious up 7 days later +0.51% +0.25%
9/26/2025 1:25:54 AM short term cautious up 7 days later +0.51% +0.25%
9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM short term up 7 days later -0.05% -0.05%
9/17/2025 10:11:21 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.39% -0.19%
9/12/2025 7:15:05 AM short term down 7 days later +2.70% -2.70%
9/11/2025 8:51:28 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.18%
9/10/2025 8:24:03 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.37% -0.19%
9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM short term down 7 days later -0.30% +0.30%
9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM short term down 7 days later -0.30% +0.30%
9/5/2025 8:47:44 AM short term down 7 days later -0.30% +0.30%
9/5/2025 7:27:44 AM short term cautious down 7 days later -0.30% +0.15%
9/3/2025 7:42:12 PM medium term sharp up 20 days later -0.69% -1.04%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -3.13% +1.57%
8/29/2025 8:13:51 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -3.13% -4.70%
8/28/2025 1:17:57 PM short term cautious up 5 days later -0.38% -0.19%
8/28/2025 7:11:09 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -2.91% -4.36%
8/27/2025 10:15:27 AM short term cautious up 5 days later +1.66% +0.83%
8/27/2025 6:53:39 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later -3.11% -1.56%
8/27/2025 6:53:39 AM medium term cautious up 20 days later -3.11% -1.56%
8/27/2025 2:10:17 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.66% -0.83%
8/26/2025 7:44:57 AM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.92% -0.46%
8/25/2025 12:19:20 PM short term down 7 days later +0.45% -0.45%
8/20/2025 11:22:19 PM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.66% +0.83%
8/20/2025 6:36:06 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -1.66% +0.83%
8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.49% +0.24%
8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM short term cautious down 5 days later -0.49% +0.24%
8/19/2025 7:37:21 AM medium term cautious down 20 days later -5.17% +2.58%
8/15/2025 10:20:21 AM short term cautious up 7 days later -1.52% -0.76%
8/7/2025 6:34:17 PM long term sharp up 60 days later -3.69% -5.53%
8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM short term cautious down 5 days later +1.26% -0.63%
8/4/2025 10:45:50 AM short term sharp down 6 days later +1.84% -2.75%
7/22/2025 6:22:47 PM short term cautious down 5 days later +0.73% -0.36%
Show all 145 yields results

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