Jeffrey Rosenberg warns against overplaying the initial yield curve flattening reaction. He argues the real hawkish signal may be about the balance sheet, not just rates. Reducing the balance sheet would remove the term premium compression that has benefited bonds, potentially leading to a different market reaction than the initial flattening suggests.

implicit

explicit
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Bianco Research 8.5
Investment Research Firm
Jim Bianco 9.0
6/18/2026 3:07:21 AM
ndx
The Fed may be less supportive... but it's occurring in an environment where the contribution... of the Fed's role is much secondary to what we're seeing in the real economy... the AI impact, the incredible amount of capital expenditures, the incredible amount of earnings growth.
5 calls
+5
slightly better than random
yields
Removing term premium support via balance sheet reduction would likely push long-end yields higher over time.
Jim Bianco welcomes the Fed's communication changes, including shorter statements and potential elimination of the dot plot. He sees the yield curve flattening as the path forward, with the Fed joining the ECB and BOJ in a global tightening cycle. He notes the Fed's new independence and the market's appropriate reaction.

implicit
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Bianco Research 8.5
Investment Research Firm
Jim Bianco 8.5
6/18/2026 3:07:21 AM
yields
Bianco expects yield curve flattening, meaning long-end yields may hold steady or rise only slightly, implying a sideways to slightly up move for long yields.
Kate Moore sees the Fed's recommitment to 2% inflation as a clear hawkish signal. She remains underweight duration, preferring equities over credit, and warns that rate-sensitive small caps will suffer as the rate trajectory stays flat or higher. She will watch for follow-through action, not just jawboning.

implicit

implicit
Oil
Metals
USD
Bianco Research 8.5
Investment Research Firm
Jim Bianco 7.5
6/18/2026 3:07:21 AM
ndx
Moore prefers equities over credit and notes earnings are strong, especially in AI and large caps, suggesting a cautiously positive view on NDX.
rut
For the fringe companies, the smaller companies, those that are reliant on borrowing... the rates trajectory is not lower in the near term... that needs to be factored into people's expectations for margins and then earnings.
yields
Moore says she is very underweight duration and cannot extend, implying she expects yields to stay elevated or rise further in the near term.