Former US Ambassador William Roebuck assesses the US-Iran military escalation as a spike in tensions within the existing messy ceasefire, not a planned long-term escalation. He notes Iran has shown strategic coherence with guardrails, but the situation is volatile. The US-Israel relationship is close but contentious, and Trump faces domestic political pressure that complicates any deal with Iran.

Morgan Stanley's Rajeev Sibal says the market was comforted by a benign core CPI print despite a high headline, countering strong payrolls. He expects the Fed to hold rates, with a potential easing bias removal. Key risks to equities are a growth scare from oil above $130 or a pullback in AI capex. He focuses on oil's transmission to growth, not inflation, and warns of persistence if oil stays elevated.

Victoria Harling of 91 says EM credit markets are taking geopolitical risks in stride. The biggest impact is on global inflation dynamics, but growth is holding up. EM central banks have managed rates well. EM corporates, especially in the Middle East, show resilience with low default rates. The main risk to EM is global growth sentiment, not just tighter policy.