The $65->$110 oil move is priced in. Further upside requires *new* supply disruption, not just continued conflict. The 10-12M bpd deficit was absorbed by inventory draws (40%) and demand destruction (30%), meaning buffers are now thin. The real forward risk is the 12-18 month lagged inflation from supply chain chaos, which will force central banks to remain hawkish longer than consensus expects. The second-order inflation effect is the underpriced tail risk.