AI capex story intact with hyperscaler investment heading to $1T+ by 2027; data center buildout enormous, affecting both equity and debt markets. US cycle mid-cycle, not advanced. Fed could still hike if data warrants; 10y yields may rise ~20bp more on structural higher term premium. Oil faces downward pressure as OECD inventories draw less than expected and Asia adjusts quickly; both sides in Iran want de-escalation.

German business confidence at very low level, significantly below pre-Iran war. Prolonged period of shocks plus structural issues (high energy prices, red tape, Chinese competition, declining labor force). Growth this year only 0.8%, driven by public spending. Private sector not responding yet. Transformation affecting a quarter to a third of manufacturing sector.

Holcim sees customers willing to pay modest premium for low-carbon products globally. Expects residential recovery in Europe starting H2 2025, with permits increasing significantly in Germany. Refurbishment market to grow as 80% of today's buildings will still be used in 2050. Middle East presence small but expects recovery. Data center demand moving fast, bottleneck is labor force.