Stuart Paul analyzes the June Beige Book, noting economic activity expanded in 10 of 12 Fed districts (up from 8 in April), inflation is now moderate-to-strong, and the labor market is softening. Consumers are stretched thin, relying on tax refunds and credit cards for necessities amid high gas prices. He sees this supporting a more hawkish Fed stance, as market-oriented regional presidents see no monetary policy restrictiveness.
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inferred
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Bloomberg
5.5
Financial Media
Stuart Paul 5.0
Financial Media
Stuart Paul 5.0
6/3/2026 9:39:30 PM
dxy
Hawkish Fed stance and no monetary policy restrictiveness suggest the dollar may strengthen as rate cuts are delayed.
metals
No direct mention. Hawkish Fed bias and strong dollar context (not explicitly discussed) typically pressure metals, but no clear signal from transcript.
ndx
No direct mention of tech or Nasdaq. Consumer strain and hawkish Fed bias suggest limited upside for growth/tech stocks in the near term.
rut
Consumer strain, reliance on credit cards, and focus on necessities at discount retailers imply weakness for small-cap and consumer-discretionary companies typical of the Russell 2000.
wti
Consumers are stretched thin by things like elevated gasoline prices.
| 5/28/2026 9:27:53 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +9.91% | -9.91% |
| 5/28/2026 12:59:08 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +9.91% | -9.91% |
| 5/27/2026 9:44:17 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +5.47% | +5.47% |
| 5/27/2026 8:38:39 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +5.47% | -5.47% |
| 5/27/2026 12:06:13 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.47% | -2.73% |
| 5/27/2026 12:03:14 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +5.47% | -5.47% |
| 5/26/2026 6:15:06 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.92% | +3.92% |
| 5/26/2026 4:16:23 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.92% | +3.92% |
| 5/25/2026 9:42:20 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 5/25/2026 9:42:20 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 5/25/2026 7:41:50 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 5/21/2026 9:08:20 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -8.20% | -8.20% |
| 5/20/2026 11:58:17 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +3.83% |
| 5/20/2026 11:06:22 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +2.55% |
| 5/20/2026 9:19:43 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +3.83% |
| 5/20/2026 12:22:59 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -2.55% | +2.55% |
| 5/19/2026 11:25:08 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -2.53% |
| 5/19/2026 1:26:20 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -1.69% |
| 5/19/2026 10:44:11 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -1.69% | +1.69% |
| 5/19/2026 1:59:18 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.69% | -1.69% |
| 5/13/2026 9:18:02 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +6.52% | -3.26% |
| 5/13/2026 9:05:11 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +6.52% |
| 5/13/2026 4:02:01 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +6.52% |
| 5/13/2026 2:30:46 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +6.52% |
| 5/13/2026 8:05:25 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +6.52% | +3.26% |
| 5/12/2026 6:29:30 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +11.34% |
| 5/12/2026 3:58:46 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +7.56% |
| 5/12/2026 9:34:37 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.56% | +7.56% |
| 5/11/2026 3:42:16 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 2:37:40 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 2:21:17 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 2:21:17 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 10:21:17 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 10:21:17 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | -9.81% | -9.81% |
| 5/11/2026 10:08:16 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 10:08:16 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/11/2026 7:45:07 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +6.34% | +6.34% |
| 5/8/2026 10:50:00 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +5.40% |
| 5/8/2026 10:50:00 PM | medium term cautious up | 21 days later | -6.03% | -3.01% |
| 5/8/2026 7:51:14 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +5.40% |
| 5/8/2026 10:34:17 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +10.80% |
| 5/8/2026 10:33:30 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +10.80% |
| 5/8/2026 9:39:28 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +16.20% |
| 5/8/2026 8:52:09 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +10.80% | +10.80% |
| 5/7/2026 10:07:01 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -6.83% | +3.42% |
| 5/7/2026 9:40:03 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +5.87% | +5.87% |
| 5/7/2026 9:26:20 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +5.87% | +5.87% |
| 5/7/2026 8:09:28 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -6.83% | +3.42% |
| 5/7/2026 2:41:58 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 5/7/2026 10:02:35 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -5.87% |
| 5/7/2026 7:06:33 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 5/6/2026 11:23:07 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +7.77% | +3.89% |
| 5/2/2026 3:08:03 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 5/1/2026 3:08:28 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 5/1/2026 3:05:47 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 5/1/2026 11:35:10 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 5/1/2026 9:53:00 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -7.85% | -11.77% |
| 4/30/2026 11:36:17 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -5.48% | +2.74% |
| 4/30/2026 3:40:05 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -5.48% | -8.23% |
| 4/27/2026 7:39:37 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +8.74% | -8.74% |
| 4/27/2026 1:02:38 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +3.25% |
| 4/27/2026 10:29:21 AM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +6.49% | +3.25% |
| 4/24/2026 3:07:59 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 1:23:43 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 1:18:06 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 11:16:33 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +10.43% |
| 4/24/2026 11:01:37 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 9:53:00 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/24/2026 12:09:41 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +10.43% | +15.64% |
| 4/20/2026 11:58:40 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +4.60% | -4.60% |
| 4/20/2026 7:06:15 PM | short term down | 6 days later | +4.60% | -4.60% |
| 4/20/2026 7:38:52 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +4.60% | +4.60% |
| 4/18/2026 2:40:06 AM | medium term down | 21 days later | +9.44% | -9.44% |
| 4/18/2026 2:18:29 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -11.32% |
| 4/18/2026 12:01:38 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -11.32% |
| 4/17/2026 4:22:48 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +7.54% | -7.54% |
| 4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -2.74% |
| 4/13/2026 7:26:30 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/13/2026 7:00:27 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -1.83% |
| 4/13/2026 2:27:08 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | -1.83% | -2.74% |
| 4/12/2026 7:34:52 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -14.34% |
| 4/12/2026 3:41:23 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -9.56% |
| 4/12/2026 3:41:14 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -9.56% |
| 4/10/2026 10:10:32 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -9.56% |
| 4/10/2026 3:55:23 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +7.41% | +7.41% |
| 4/10/2026 1:31:13 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +7.41% | +7.41% |
| 4/10/2026 12:31:57 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -9.56% | -4.78% |
| 4/6/2026 10:30:45 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -14.68% | +7.34% |
| 4/6/2026 7:54:23 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -14.68% | -14.68% |
| 4/4/2026 7:49:11 PM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | -14.27% | +7.13% |
| 4/3/2026 3:02:21 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 4/3/2026 12:36:51 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -11.86% | -17.79% |
| 3/30/2026 3:30:54 PM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +10.88% | +5.44% |
| 3/30/2026 2:09:27 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | -11.61% | -17.41% |
| 3/30/2026 2:04:13 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +10.88% | +16.32% |
| 3/30/2026 8:40:46 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +10.88% | +16.32% |
| 3/29/2026 5:07:24 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/28/2026 6:03:36 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +9.26% |
| 3/27/2026 11:07:21 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +13.89% |
| 3/27/2026 11:59:23 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +13.89% |
| 3/27/2026 2:00:21 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +9.26% | +13.89% |
| 3/25/2026 10:52:54 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +7.30% | -7.30% |
| 3/23/2026 9:56:47 AM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +11.40% | +5.70% |
| 3/21/2026 1:47:39 AM | long term sharp down | 60 days later | +9.61% | -14.42% |
| 3/20/2026 4:06:06 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +16.74% | +25.10% |
| 3/20/2026 2:30:40 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +16.74% | +16.74% |
| 3/13/2026 9:25:35 PM | medium term sharp up | 21 days later | +20.22% | +30.34% |
| 3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -2.87% |
| 3/13/2026 6:57:37 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -2.87% |
| 3/13/2026 9:59:21 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -5.74% | -8.61% |
| 3/11/2026 10:09:41 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +0.50% | +0.75% |
| 3/10/2026 9:18:14 AM | medium term up | 20 days later | +16.19% | +16.19% |
| 3/10/2026 2:38:02 AM | medium term down | 20 days later | +16.19% | -16.19% |
| 3/10/2026 12:08:58 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +7.16% | +7.16% |
| 3/9/2026 6:46:13 PM | medium term sharp up | 20 days later | +23.28% | +34.93% |
| 3/9/2026 2:08:40 PM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/9/2026 10:03:43 AM | short term up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +12.04% |
| 3/9/2026 8:28:21 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/9/2026 6:55:49 AM | short term sharp up | 6 days later | +12.04% | +18.06% |
| 3/8/2026 3:01:00 AM | short term up | 7 days later | -1.34% | -1.34% |
| 3/5/2026 10:50:58 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -6.02% |
| 3/5/2026 2:02:48 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 3/4/2026 2:05:06 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +3.01% | +4.52% |
| 3/4/2026 5:43:12 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +3.01% | -1.51% |
| 3/3/2026 10:53:30 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +26.94% |
| 3/3/2026 8:39:08 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +26.94% | +40.40% |
| 3/2/2026 8:34:28 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +18.20% | -18.20% |
| 2/25/2026 9:27:27 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +14.34% | +7.17% |
| 2/20/2026 2:32:12 PM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +7.42% | +3.71% |
| 2/20/2026 10:59:11 AM | short term up | 7 days later | +7.42% | +7.42% |
| 2/19/2026 11:46:00 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | -1.46% | -0.73% |
| 2/19/2026 10:55:34 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +44.19% | -22.10% |
| 2/11/2026 10:46:14 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.81% | -0.81% |
| 2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.82% | -1.82% |
| 2/2/2026 10:10:47 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.82% | -1.82% |
| 1/30/2026 6:19:23 AM | short term cautious up | 7 days later | +3.57% | +1.79% |
| 1/29/2026 9:02:44 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.87% | -0.94% |
| 1/20/2026 6:00:07 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.02% | +0.02% |
| 1/16/2026 7:33:17 PM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | +2.02% | +3.03% |
| 1/12/2026 6:04:30 PM | medium term down | 20 days later | +1.62% | -1.62% |
| 1/10/2026 2:50:05 AM | medium term down | 21 days later | +4.44% | -4.44% |
| 1/9/2026 6:25:43 AM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | -0.12% | +0.06% |
| 1/7/2026 9:00:08 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +5.87% | -2.93% |
| 12/22/2025 11:02:38 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -0.51% | +0.26% |
| 12/22/2025 9:48:16 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.51% | -0.51% |
| 12/22/2025 7:55:54 AM | long term down | 62 days later | +13.58% | -13.58% |
| 12/19/2025 10:53:44 PM | medium term down | 21 days later | +2.57% | -2.57% |
| 12/19/2025 9:48:49 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +0.12% | +0.12% |
| 12/18/2025 9:42:38 PM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.98% | -2.98% |
| 12/18/2025 1:08:16 PM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +2.98% | +1.49% |
| 12/17/2025 2:09:01 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +3.97% | -1.99% |
| 12/16/2025 11:40:23 PM | short term sharp down | 5 days later | +3.70% | -5.55% |
| 12/16/2025 11:22:24 PM | medium term sharp down | 20 days later | +2.13% | -3.19% |
| 11/24/2025 10:29:53 AM | long term cautious down | 62 days later | +4.62% | -2.31% |
| 10/23/2025 2:05:44 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | -1.66% | -2.49% |
| 10/22/2025 11:01:29 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -2.65% | +1.33% |
| 10/21/2025 9:16:26 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +4.80% | -2.40% |
| 10/20/2025 6:00:17 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +6.04% | -3.02% |
| 9/30/2025 11:07:33 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.15% | +0.15% |
| 9/30/2025 7:44:54 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -0.15% | +0.07% |
| 9/29/2025 7:07:25 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -1.09% | +0.55% |
| 9/29/2025 7:07:25 AM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.09% | +1.09% |
| 9/24/2025 7:52:42 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -4.02% | -4.02% |
| 9/19/2025 10:47:12 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +1.29% | -1.29% |
| 9/9/2025 8:33:16 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.58% | -0.58% |
| 9/8/2025 11:19:17 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +1.07% | +1.07% |
| 9/8/2025 11:11:54 AM | short term cautious up | 6 days later | +1.07% | +0.53% |
| 9/8/2025 8:18:05 AM | short term down | 6 days later | +1.07% | -1.07% |
| 9/5/2025 10:16:54 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +1.67% | -1.67% |
| 9/5/2025 7:27:44 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +1.91% | -0.96% |
| 9/4/2025 11:19:15 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +2.91% | -2.91% |
| 8/18/2025 11:10:24 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +3.93% | +3.93% |
| 8/15/2025 11:21:59 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +2.18% | -2.18% |
| 8/14/2025 11:46:57 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.65% | +0.65% |
| 8/11/2025 10:07:32 AM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | +0.40% | -0.20% |
| 8/8/2025 8:23:48 PM | short term down | 7 days later | -0.84% | +0.84% |
| 8/8/2025 10:13:14 AM | short term sharp down | 7 days later | -0.84% | +1.27% |
| 8/5/2025 10:44:07 AM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.61% | +0.61% |
| 8/4/2025 11:29:13 PM | short term down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +1.84% |
| 8/4/2025 9:08:09 PM | short term cautious down | 6 days later | -1.84% | +0.92% |
yields
Stuart Paul notes that regional bank presidents are incrementally hawkish because they see no monetary policy restrictiveness, implying upward pressure on yields as the Fed may need to tighten further.
