Core PCE will stay above 3% for the rest of the year. The Fed under Kevin Warsh is inflation-focused, likely staying on hold but with upside risk to rates. The ECB will likely do one more hike and then stop at 2.50%, holding through 2027. Oil easing reduces energy inflation risk, but chip prices will feed into goods inflation.

The Iran situation is a war of choice, not a peace agreement but a temporary halt. The prior JCPOA was the strongest nuclear agreement in history. The war and high oil prices have accelerated the move toward renewables. The energy transition is now unstoppable, driven by business case and marketplace decisions, not just climate concerns.

Germany and European allies are committed to NATO burden sharing, with all members now reaching 2% and Germany on track for 3.5%. Rearmament is proving harder than expected due to production capacity constraints. Germany cut losses on the F-126 frigate project and is evaluating options for a 6th generation fighter jet, with a decision due this year.

Micron's blowout results and tight supply beyond 2027 suggest AI-driven demand may be becoming structural, not just cyclical. Strong pricing power is feeding into profit margins. Asian players like SK Hynix are seeking US capital, but there is enough to go around given the enormous excitement around the AI trade.

Stanford's Faustian bargain with Silicon Valley has enabled immense innovation but also fraud. The corporatization of universities raises the question: is it a place to learn or to get rich? AI is an accelerant that stratifies value, making top researchers more valuable while making entry-level positions harder. Stanford saw CS enrollment drop for the first time in two decades, a warning sign.