SpaceX IPO at 120x revenue with no profit; governance risks from Texas reincorporation, arbitration clauses, and fast lockup expiry (July) could cause index inclusion volatility. Prediction markets threaten financial market integrity; AI model concentration poses systemic stability risk. Iran deal 80-85% likely but verification and proxy spoilers remain.

Iran MOU 80-85% likely, performance-based with step-by-step conditions; nuclear negotiations deferred 60 days post-signing. Verification not detailed; sanctions relief possible but contingent on actions. FISA 702 expiration doesn't affect State Dept visa vetting directly; World Cup security surged with $1B+ for local law enforcement.

Iran MOU leaves nuclear details for 60-day post-signing negotiation—far from adequate. JCPOA took 2+ years for verification details; new deal must include ballistic missiles and proxies to be 'better'. Israel and Hezbollah have motivation to undermine; Iranian leadership is consensus-based, not fractured, but proxies (Houthis) may hold in reserve.