The UK economy faces a stagflationary shock from the Iran war. Energy costs will push headline inflation 1.5 percentage points higher by early next year, squeezing real incomes. The BOE is expected to hold rates but faces a credibility risk if it talks tough without acting. A rate hike may come in July.

New Fed Chair Kevin Worsh faces his first policy meeting amid war-driven inflation. The key question is whether the Fed drops guidance implying rate cuts and what the dot plot shows. Worsh must demonstrate independence from political pressure. Former Chair Powell will likely stay in the background.

The Makerfield by-election could reshape British politics. Andy Burnham is the most popular politician in the country and could challenge PM Starmer if he wins. The contest is not a foregone conclusion due to a strong challenge from Reform UK. The election coincides with the Bank of England's rate decision.