The US-Iran ceasefire deal remains elusive with constant back-and-forth on wording. Israel's incursion into Lebanon complicates broader peace talks, as Iran demands any Hormuz deal must extend to all conflict theaters including Lebanon.
Yields
NDX
RUT

implicit
Metals
USD
Bloomberg 5.5
Financial Media
Stuart Livingstone Wallace 4.5
Geopolitical update on Iran and Middle East (with Abeer Abu Omar)
6/1/2026 10:44:42 AM
wti
The ceasefire deal remains elusive with constant back-and-forth, creating uncertainty around Strait of Hormuz reopening. Strikes continue on Iranian assets, suggesting ongoing supply disruption risk.
186 calls
+6
slightly better than random
Central banks are gaining importance as FX drivers. The dollar is stuck in a soft orbit. De-dollarization is happening but very slowly. The yen faces resistance at 160 but BOJ rate hikes and Fed policy divergence will determine if that level holds.

implicit
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals

explicit
HSBC 8.0
Investment Bank $1686.00B
Paul Mackel 8.5
FX and central bank outlook (with Abeer Abu Omar)
6/1/2026 10:44:42 AM
dxy
The dollar is stuck in a soft orbit
4 calls
-+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
yields
Central banks are getting closer to raising rates in response to elevated oil prices and higher inflation readings, which would push yields higher.
9 calls
-+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
Oil has dropped about $10 over the past week to ~$93 as some tankers trickle out of the Gulf. About 29 of 109 tankers have left since the war started, some turning off satellite signals or negotiating passage. The EU may ease Russian sanctions to allow more oil on market at lower prices.
Yields
NDX
RUT

explicit
Metals
USD
Bloomberg 5.5
Financial Media
Anthony DiPaola 4.0
Oil market and Strait of Hormuz update (with Abeer Abu Omar)
6/1/2026 10:44:42 AM
wti
Oil has dropped about $10 over the past week to about $93
186 calls
+6
slightly better than random