US-Iran MOU aims to reopen Strait of Hormuz, easing oil supply fears. Iran's fractured leadership faces a decision on nuclear talks post-strike. Despite 'reasonable' transit protocols, ship owners fear intelligence gathering, amplified by a recent projectile strike on a cargo vessel. WTI likely to trend lower on potential supply increase.

China's banking regulator told banks to pause loans to US-sanctioned refiners, contradicting earlier Commerce Ministry directive to ignore sanctions. This may reflect lack of coordination or a quiet compliance strategy ahead of Trump-Xi summit. Iran FM visited Beijing seeking China's mediation role.

Mark Cranfield argues that the end of the Iran war risk, signaled by Trump, is a major catalyst for equities, especially tech/AI, as companies continue to report strong earnings. The fading dollar haven premium supports yen and other currencies, with USD/JPY capped at 160, aiding Japanese equities' catch-up potential.

China is walking a careful balancing act with Iran and the US. The odds of the Trump-Xi summit happening have increased after de-escalation signals, but risks remain. Best case outcome is extension of the trade truce and additional purchase agreements, not major tariff reductions.

Memory chip market is undergoing a structural reset, not just a cycle. AI-driven demand is robust, extending into late 2027. Supply remains constrained with new capacity years away. Expect elevated prices permanently; a return to 2025 levels is unlikely. This implies sustained margin expansion for memory producers and potential headwinds for AI hardware consumers.