Isa Aoshi discusses the rotation from tech to cyclicals driven by the oil price collapse. He sees more upside in tech, particularly in AI data center supply chains shifting to lower-cost solutions like ASICs. Japan's factory automation sector is recovering. On China, he likes the semiconductor supply chain due to localization push. The BOJ should keep hiking as it's normalization, not inflation getting out of hand.

Parash Jain discusses the logistics of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Over 600 vessels are stranded. Shipping lines are in wait-and-see mode until insurance markets normalize and mines are cleared (40-50 days). Container shipping faces medium-term downside as Red Sea reopening could add 7-8% capacity. Airlines will see mean reversion, with strong carriers emerging stronger.

Tom Orlik analyzes Kevin Walsh's first FOMC meeting. The key question is which Walsh shows up: the uber-hawk from 2006-2011 or the more dovish version from 2025-2026. Orlik expects a straight performance with no clear signal on the next move, but action may be in the dot plot. Walsh may change communication style with shorter press conferences or no dot submission.

Paul Jackson analyzes the BOJ's rate hike and taper program. The BOJ is reducing bond purchases from 24 trillion yen to around 2 trillion, a milestone in normalization. The yen was stable after the decision, suggesting success in communication. The deputy governor hinted at a risk of inflation above 2%, which may signal a rate hike as soon as October.

Chris Gaddy outlines the 14-point US-Iran plan: immediate sanctions waivers for Iran to sell oil, eventual unfreezing of assets, and commitment to end wars in Lebanon and Iran. Skepticism remains on implementation and domestic political pushback in both US and Israel.

Ray Attrill discusses the dollar's direction ahead of the Fed decision. Key focus is on the dot plot, with expectations that the 2026 rate cut may be removed. Oil price decline is a negative for the USD as a net energy exporter. On China, the yuan's appreciation may pause at 6.75, but strategic direction is still lower. The yen remains fundamentally weak due to BOJ's effective QE keeping JGB yields low.