Euronext CEO refutes the 'Europe is dead' narrative. Mideast risk is driving consistent US/Asian capital *into* EU equities, a relative safe haven play. The IPO pipeline is alive, but the alpha is in Aerospace & Defense, fueled by re-armament (KNDS IPO slated for summer). Europe's lower energy dependency vs. Asia offers a structural advantage if oil volatility persists, creating a clear relative value opportunity.

Fade the bond rally; it's a technical short squeeze, not a trend change. The market is finally waking up to the US fiscal doom loop, which will keep upward pressure on long-end yields. Corporate credit is the next shoe to drop. Spreads are dangerously tight given heavy issuance and higher real yields. We are underweight, expecting a material widening. The BOE is a dovish mispricing; they are far more constrained than the market believes and won't deliver priced-in hikes.

Consumer is cracking, not just low-end but US middle class. Discretionary spend is rolling over. Stay defensive in value (13.5x P/E), which benefits from higher yields. Avoid tech hardware; earnings estimates are a cyclical fantasy. The flat curve offers zero premium for duration risk amid looming sovereign fiscal crises (see UK). Stay short-dated. The massive lag in energy stocks vs. oil confirms the market sees the price spike as transient.

Core view: A sharp consumer slowdown in H2 will override inflationary pressures from oil ($100 Brent), fiscal expansion, and the AI capex boom. This gives the Fed cover to cut next year, making current market pricing for a hike wrong. The labor market is a red herring; slowing job gains reflect supply constraints (immigration cuts), meaning the unemployment rate will drift *lower*, not higher. This is the key mispricing.

Focus on NVDA's purchase commitments ($50B->$90B QoQ) as the key forward indicator. They've locked down 2/3 of the supply chain through 2026-27, neutralizing competition. The crowded 'second derivative' trade in suppliers is over; NVDA itself is now the compelling value with ~100% EPS growth. The market misunderstands the product cycle: older chips appreciate for inference (Hopper +35% YTD). The AI capex payoff is visible in cloud revenue, not FCF.