China tech's AI hardware/domestic chip 'catch-up' is the key theme, with cost-competitiveness driving adoption. Insurance sees inflows from maturing deposits. Power equipment benefits from export growth. Expects 2 US rate cuts (late-year focus), no Trump-Xi breakthrough. HK GDP boosted by AI exports; favors export plays, banks, utilities, Macau gaming.

Mark Cranfield warns chasing the semiconductor rally is risky due to extreme valuations and a potential peace deal that would trigger a rotation from overpriced AI stocks to laggards like Chinese tech and Southeast Asia. He sees a major recalibration ahead.

Higher oil prices necessitate a hawkish bias, pushing rates higher for longer. Expect stability in USD/CNY due to US-China talks, anchoring regional markets. Favorable views on Malaysia local bonds/rates (oil/export hedge), and EM FX (Indonesia, India, Philippines) with cheap currencies and high yields. Convertibles offer an alternative to tight credit spreads. US rates show relative value. Credit risk emerges if oil spikes significantly.

Rick Rieder highlights a stark divergence: equities benefit from buybacks and scarce supply, while bonds face massive Treasury supply. He sees strong nominal GDP growth (6%) and pricing power supporting equities, but warns geopolitical risks are rising. He argues cash flow growth makes a significant default cycle unlikely.