Stuart Paul sees the balance of risks tilted toward higher inflation for longer, with a relatively undynamic labor market keeping inflation pressures contained. He expects 95,000 jobs added in May with unemployment at 4.3%, noting hiring is concentrated in volatile sectors like leisure/hospitality and healthcare, not indicative of a dynamic labor market.

Priya Misra is more concerned about inflation than the job market. She sees current inflation as supply-shock induced (tariffs, energy) rather than demand-led, unlike 2022. The bar to hike is still high; the Fed will move to neutral and stay on pause watching data. She is bullish on the long end of the Treasury curve given weakening global growth and the 10-year above 4.50%.

Gene Tannuzzo sees good reason for markets pricing in potential Fed hikes. Core services excluding housing (super core) is at 3.4% and accelerating - a problem for the Fed. He believes the market could price in two hikes (50bp) over the next year. The inflation concern is less about oil and more about underlying core services inflation. He disagrees that markets are underpricing a peace deal risk given equities at all-time highs and spreads at tights.