The US-Iran ceasefire has all but collapsed after a second day of US strikes. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, with Qatar and Pakistan emerging as key mediators. Hostilities signal dangerous escalation in the region.

SpaceX IPO is 4-5x oversubscribed, which is good but on the lower end for a hot deal. Retail is likely more oversubscribed than institutional. Oracle revenue is in line but capex spending is rising faster than revenue growth, causing concern. Enterprise AI adoption will be a real sense check over the next 12 months.

Bosch is pivoting to become an AI and robotics company, supplying sensors, drives, and AI software for humanoid robots. China's robotics push is intense but not yet causing oversupply. The Iran conflict impacts supply chains for helium and sulfur, and energy pricing, but has not yet dramatically affected Bosch's supply chains.

Markets are climbing a wall of worry with geopolitics, IPOs, and rate hikes. Short-term strategy favors front-end investment grade credit for asymmetry. Gold is on pause but has double-digit upside long-term. AI remains a strong theme but revenue growth needs to materialize. ECB hike is likely a one-and-done, not start of a cycle.

European private equity faces a complex environment with the Iran war impacting energy prices and supply chains. Distributions are running at 16% of beginning period NAV for 4 years, as bad as during the 2008 financial crisis. The industry is adapting by becoming more proactive on exits through secondary markets and capital solutions. Valuation dispersion is significant, especially in software.