Portfolio manager on dollar, yen, inflation, and AI productivity (with Guy, Anna, Tom)

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NDX

RUT

Oil

Metals

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Allspring Global Investment 7.8
Asset Manager $500.00B
Lauren van Biljon 7.5

Portfolio manager on dollar, yen, inflation, and AI productivity (with Guy, Anna, Tom)

dxy

After a decade of outperformance, probably now back to about neutral. Not that same blanket dollar weakness we saw last year.

yields

There are good reasons to think US rates could end the year lower than we think. We think risk is to the downside for the US. Rent and housing path looks quite sanguine into year-end. If that plays out, US rates could be lower than market predicts.

5 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

12/19/2025 8:24:36 AM	medium term up	21 days later	+0.43%	+0.43%
9/3/2025 8:33:02 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-2.44%	+1.22%
8/29/2025 10:13:54 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-3.13%	+1.57%

Show all 3 yields results

Asks what's going on with the yen.

Guy
Lauren van Biljon

On pure valuation it sticks out as wildly undervalued. But fundamentals underpinning it make it hard to make headway: upside fiscal risk, looming election, monetary policy far too lax.
Asks if dollar is cheap.

Guy
Lauren van Biljon

After a decade of outperformance, probably now back to about neutral.
Asks if it will get cheaper.

Guy
Lauren van Biljon

Not that same blanket dollar weakness we saw last year, but there are pairs where that move looks appealing.
Asks if Trump's comfort with dollar weakness changes thinking.

Anna
Lauren van Biljon

Interesting how it plays into US monetary policy. We have a new Fed chair coming. There are good reasons to think US rates could end the year lower than we think.
Asks why - politics or something else?

Anna
Lauren van Biljon

Looking at inflation forecast for this year. We think risk is to the downside for the US. Rent and housing path looks quite sanguine into year-end. If that plays out, US rates could be lower than market predicts.
Asks if calling for three Fed cuts.

Tom
Lauren van Biljon

Basically 2-3. Talking about balance of risk - risk is more than one or four.
Asks about danger that CPI focusing on rent misreads inflation outlook.

Guy
Lauren van Biljon

Good point about K-shaped recovery. There is a path where US inflation is back at 2% by year-end.
Asks about AI driving chip prices higher and impact on inflation view.

Anna
Lauren van Biljon

It's all about timing. Competition for chips always worth keeping an eye on, but not clear when that plays out. Might be end of 2026.
Asks how playing AI theme for 2026 and divergence hardware vs software.

Tom
Lauren van Biljon

For me, where I'm most fascinated is what AI is going to do to productivity. How much growth is it driving? And when?
Asks about ECB comments on potential rate cuts if euro keeps gaining.

Anna
Lauren van Biljon

We had 1.20 target on euro-dollar. Short term is not a bad place to take some profits, reconsider, reload. ECB best case seems to be on hold, but balance of risk - more likely to ease than to hike again.

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