Julie Ho is constructive on the second half, citing a broadening of global cyclicality beyond just tech/AI into non-tech exports and tangential sectors like grid infrastructure and factory automation. She sees value in beaten-down Chinese exporters, Hong Kong financials, and regional telcos as defensive plays. She argues the historical negative correlation between a strong USD and Asian markets has broken due to Asia's shift to higher-value exports.
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JPMorgan 9.2
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Julie Ho 9.0
7/1/2026 12:06:11 AM
dxy
She argues the historical negative correlation between a strong USD and Asian markets has broken, implying she does not see a strong directional move in the dollar as a primary driver for her thesis.
ndx
She is constructive on the second half, citing broadening cyclicality and AI fundamentals surpassing expectations, but her focus on value and income suggests a cautious, not aggressive, bullishness on tech-heavy indices.
rut
Her thesis of broadening cyclicality into non-tech exports and value sectors like machinery, appliances, and Hong Kong financials directly supports a positive view on small-cap and value-oriented indices like the Russell 2000.
Helen Chow views the June PMI as marginally positive but not a game-changer, confirming a K-shaped recovery where supply/exports are strong but domestic demand is weak. She believes policymakers lack urgency for major stimulus unless Q2 data shows significant deceleration. She expects more easing in H2 but not immediately, and sees trade frictions with EU/Japan as a bigger risk than US-China tensions.

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BofA Global Research 8.5
Investment Bank $3040.00B
Helen Chow 8.5
7/1/2026 12:06:11 AM
dxy
Her focus is on domestic Chinese policy and trade frictions, not on a strong directional view of the dollar.
wti
She notes that lower oil prices would help China by reducing energy inflation and improving terms of trade, implying an expectation or hope for a decline.
yields
She expects no immediate rate cut from the PBOC, suggesting a period of stable policy rates in the near term.
Jeff Ng expects the dollar to remain a headwind for the yen in the near term due to US exceptionalism and hawkish Fed rhetoric. He believes the BOJ is focused on stability and pace of moves, not just levels, and would intervene if the yen weakens too quickly. His year-end forecast of 155 for USD/JPY relies on a moderation of Fed hawkishness and lower energy prices later in the year.
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dxy
The dollar is moving between... US exceptionalism, hawkish Fed rhetoric since June and that could persist in the coming one, two months.
metals
He notes that gold and bitcoin are 'really struggling' on the other side of the dollar trade, implying a bearish near-term view.
ndx
We still expect that the equity market could still be relatively supported by AI demand... including robotics as well.